***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.7 4.2 5.4 -1.9 29.5 35.4 4.4 7.1 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.2 3.3 5.3 -2.0 28.9 34.3 3.8 5.1 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.8 3.7 5.7 -2.1 29.6 34.9 4.6 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -3.2 -3.1 2.1 -2.6 25.9 31.8 -1.6 0.2 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.2 3.8 -2.2 29.0 35.0 4.4 6.5 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.4 3.9 3.0 -1.5 31.9 38.8 4.1 6.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.3 3.1 5.6 -1.7 30.0 35.6 3.5 5.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.2 -3.7 3.5 -1.6 32.1 37.9 -3.6 -1.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.1 4.6 -2.0 31.7 35.9 5.1 6.5 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.9 4.8 4.0 -1.8 33.0 37.2 4.8 7.0 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.5 4.9 4.1 -1.8 29.8 36.7 5.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.6 4.1 -1.6 31.8 37.9 4.7 7.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 5.9 3.8 -1.4 33.5 39.4 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.8 4.8 -2.1 32.5 35.2 4.8 7.4 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 3.8 3.4 2.6 -2.7 26.9 31.9 4.0 6.1 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.8 3.8 -1.7 30.0 37.5 6.1 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.3 2.8 5.3 -2.0 27.9 33.9 3.1 5.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 4.6 4.2 -1.5 34.7 38.9 4.5 6.1 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.6 2.3 5.4 -2.1 28.7 34.0 3.0 5.8 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.7 2.3 -1.2 34.0 39.9 1.5 3.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.1 4.5 5.1 -2.1 30.6 35.0 5.0 6.4 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.4 2.9 5.2 -2.2 28.3 32.9 3.4 5.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.6 2.7 5.7 -2.1 29.2 34.5 3.9 6.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.4 4.5 5.0 -1.9 33.0 36.8 4.6 6.8 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 3.3 3.5 -2.3 28.1 33.5 3.5 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.0 5.5 3.6 -1.3 31.6 38.6 5.8 6.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 4.6 4.9 -1.9 31.0 35.6 4.7 6.3 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 3.7 3.5 2.4 -2.6 25.8 32.6 4.4 6.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 5.0 1.4 3.7 -1.4 34.8 39.9 0.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.2 2.9 5.4 -1.9 29.6 34.9 3.5 5.2 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------