***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.7 1.7 3.9 -2.8 23.7 28.9 2.4 5.0 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 1.8 1.6 3.6 -3.1 22.5 26.6 2.4 3.7 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.6 2.1 4.0 -3.1 23.6 28.5 2.7 4.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -3.4 -4.6 0.8 -3.0 25.4 29.6 -3.4 -0.5 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.0 2.3 2.6 -2.8 28.4 31.0 2.5 4.8 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.6 2.3 1.9 -2.0 34.1 36.0 2.3 5.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 1.7 1.3 3.7 -2.9 22.4 27.2 2.1 3.5 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 1.8 -2.7 31.0 31.6 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.9 2.3 3.5 -2.8 28.8 30.7 2.6 4.8 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.2 2.5 2.4 -2.9 29.8 30.9 2.8 4.8 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.2 3.1 3.0 -2.7 30.6 31.8 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.2 2.4 2.6 -2.5 31.6 32.6 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.9 3.5 3.1 -2.1 33.7 35.2 3.3 6.0 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.6 2.6 3.0 -3.6 22.6 26.7 3.2 4.4 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.4 2.4 -2.6 28.6 32.0 3.5 4.4 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.9 3.1 2.7 -2.5 31.2 33.1 3.3 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 1.3 0.9 3.4 -3.1 20.8 25.6 2.5 3.0 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.8 2.7 2.1 -3.0 28.6 30.3 2.7 4.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 1.7 1.7 3.7 -3.2 22.9 26.7 2.1 3.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.3 0.0 0.7 -2.5 31.6 31.8 0.1 2.3 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.6 2.2 4.0 -2.9 27.0 29.9 2.7 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 2.1 1.6 3.4 -3.3 20.4 25.0 2.5 4.0 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 1.9 1.6 3.7 -3.3 23.3 26.8 2.5 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.9 2.6 3.3 -3.2 25.8 28.8 3.0 4.6 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.4 1.8 2.6 -2.8 25.3 29.5 2.5 4.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.2 3.8 2.6 -1.6 37.8 37.3 3.3 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.6 1.9 3.5 -2.7 24.7 29.4 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.5 1.6 -2.8 27.4 30.9 3.7 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 1.7 -2.8 29.5 30.9 -0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 1.5 1.1 3.7 -3.0 22.6 27.4 2.0 3.6 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------