***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.3 2.9 4.3 -1.7 27.5 31.5 3.5 7.4 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 2.3 2.0 3.4 -2.9 21.6 25.4 4.1 6.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.8 4.6 4.4 -2.3 28.0 29.9 4.7 7.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.7 0.3 2.1 -0.8 39.7 39.2 -0.1 0.8 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.5 5.8 4.2 -0.8 39.3 39.6 5.3 7.9 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 6.8 6.9 4.5 1.0 52.3 52.1 5.0 6.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 1.5 2.1 3.4 -2.7 22.6 26.0 2.8 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -0.3 -1.3 3.8 -0.4 42.8 42.5 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.9 6.5 5.1 -1.0 38.8 38.8 5.9 8.1 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.5 6.5 4.1 -1.0 39.1 38.8 5.8 7.9 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.5 5.9 5.3 -0.3 41.6 42.5 5.5 7.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 8.0 7.2 4.8 0.1 44.8 45.3 5.7 7.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.9 6.9 5.8 0.6 46.2 48.5 5.0 7.3 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 4.1 5.6 3.1 -3.6 25.0 26.5 6.1 7.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 7.6 5.9 4.3 -0.1 42.1 43.0 4.7 7.2 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.3 7.4 5.0 0.3 43.4 46.1 5.6 7.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 1.5 1.6 2.5 -3.5 20.4 23.5 4.3 5.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.3 5.4 3.4 -1.4 36.5 36.2 5.0 6.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 2.7 2.1 3.6 -2.9 21.6 25.8 3.8 7.0 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 4.3 3.7 2.6 -0.4 41.8 42.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.3 5.1 -1.6 33.8 34.9 5.2 7.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 2.4 2.4 2.6 -3.7 19.9 23.3 4.6 6.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 3.5 3.1 3.8 -2.8 22.1 26.7 5.0 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.8 6.1 4.2 -2.4 29.8 31.1 6.2 8.1 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.3 3.7 -1.4 32.1 34.8 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 7.5 7.4 4.9 1.1 51.1 53.2 4.8 7.3 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.5 4.0 4.0 -1.7 27.3 31.6 4.6 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 8.7 6.2 3.6 -0.2 42.2 42.9 4.9 8.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.2 2.5 3.2 -1.0 37.0 38.1 2.0 3.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 2.7 2.3 3.8 -2.5 23.5 27.1 3.8 6.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------