***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -0.9 -1.9 -0.4 38.8 43.8 -1.6 -0.5 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 -0.9 32.3 38.0 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 -1.4 -0.2 -2.0 -0.7 37.0 41.2 -0.6 0.7 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -7.2 -6.5 -4.8 -0.6 35.6 41.1 -7.1 -4.9 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -3.0 -2.3 -3.8 -0.4 40.1 44.5 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -3.0 -5.5 0.2 48.6 51.8 -3.5 -2.9 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -3.0 -2.2 -2.4 -0.9 33.6 38.9 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -7.6 -8.4 -5.5 0.0 47.0 49.3 -8.9 -8.1 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 -2.5 -1.1 -3.5 -0.1 43.4 47.0 -1.9 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -0.9 -1.4 -5.0 -0.2 44.0 47.0 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -1.7 -4.2 0.0 42.5 48.1 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.7 -4.6 0.2 46.7 50.8 -3.3 -2.5 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.8 -4.7 0.3 47.5 51.2 -2.7 -1.7 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -2.5 -1.4 -4.4 -0.9 35.3 38.6 -1.8 -0.8 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -1.8 -3.4 -0.2 38.3 45.5 -2.3 -0.8 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.0 -4.6 0.1 44.1 48.9 -1.7 -0.9 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -2.8 -2.8 -1.3 30.3 35.6 -2.7 -1.2 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -3.7 -5.7 -0.4 42.5 44.9 -3.8 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 -3.1 -2.4 -2.5 -0.9 33.1 38.3 -2.4 -1.0 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -5.9 -6.3 -6.7 -0.1 48.8 49.3 -7.5 -6.2 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -2.7 -1.4 -2.5 -0.4 40.4 44.4 -2.2 -1.3 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -2.9 -1.3 30.6 35.2 -2.8 -1.5 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -3.4 -2.3 -2.6 -0.8 34.9 39.3 -2.3 -1.6 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -3.1 -1.9 -4.2 -0.6 37.6 41.8 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 -2.5 -2.1 -3.0 -0.4 39.2 43.9 -2.4 -1.4 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.7 -4.5 0.5 53.8 54.5 -2.5 -1.8 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.6 -2.4 -0.4 39.4 43.7 -2.0 -0.9 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -4.1 -3.2 -4.4 -0.5 36.2 42.8 -3.4 -2.4 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -3.7 -4.5 -6.1 -0.2 46.2 47.8 -5.4 -4.2 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 -2.9 -1.9 -2.2 -0.8 34.9 39.9 -2.0 -0.8 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------