***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 2.1 0.6 -0.4 0.6 54.4 58.7 -0.7 0.5 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 1.3 0.1 -0.4 0.5 55.9 58.5 -1.4 -0.6 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 3.4 1.7 -0.5 0.4 52.5 57.4 0.3 1.5 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -6.9 -4.2 -3.6 0.2 49.5 54.7 -4.9 -4.2 -1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -2.7 -0.7 -3.1 0.3 49.6 56.1 -2.1 -0.7 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -3.5 -1.7 -5.2 0.2 47.7 54.5 -3.3 -1.6 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 1.7 0.2 -0.4 0.6 55.7 59.0 -1.2 -0.5 1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -5.8 -6.2 -4.8 0.5 51.2 56.6 -7.6 -6.2 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -1.4 0.2 -2.6 0.4 49.8 56.8 -1.3 0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 0.5 0.1 -4.1 0.4 50.4 56.5 -1.4 0.0 1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 0.4 -0.3 -3.8 0.3 48.5 56.3 -1.5 -0.2 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -3.6 -1.7 -4.2 0.4 51.1 56.7 -2.3 -1.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -2.6 -0.7 -4.4 0.5 50.6 56.7 -1.4 -0.7 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -1.2 0.7 -2.8 0.3 53.0 55.7 -0.6 0.4 1.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -2.1 0.1 -2.6 0.0 50.0 53.0 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -1.8 -0.1 -4.2 0.3 48.7 56.1 -0.7 -0.1 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 1.6 0.0 -0.4 0.5 55.9 58.3 -1.2 -0.3 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -1.7 -4.7 0.5 52.1 56.4 -3.4 -1.8 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 1.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.4 54.3 57.7 -1.3 -0.5 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -7.7 -3.9 -5.8 0.7 54.3 57.9 -8.2 -4.7 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 -1.8 0.0 -1.3 0.5 52.4 57.2 -1.5 -0.2 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 1.1 -0.2 -0.8 0.4 51.3 57.0 -1.5 -0.3 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 0.0 -0.2 -1.0 0.4 52.7 56.9 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -2.2 -0.4 -3.1 0.3 52.1 55.9 -1.1 -0.5 0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 0.7 -0.7 -1.8 0.6 53.5 58.1 -1.6 -1.0 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -2.2 -0.1 -4.6 0.3 50.7 55.7 -2.4 -0.3 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 2.0 0.0 -0.9 0.7 55.0 59.1 -1.4 -0.1 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -3.8 -2.3 -3.5 0.1 49.3 54.0 -3.4 -2.2 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -1.5 -1.4 -5.0 0.6 53.6 57.3 -3.9 -1.8 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 1.9 0.1 -0.5 0.5 54.1 58.3 -1.0 -0.4 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------