***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -1.2 34.9 40.3 -1.9 -0.2 0.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -3.1 -3.4 -2.6 -1.4 32.0 38.2 -3.3 -1.5 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 -1.6 -1.1 -2.5 -1.4 32.2 38.6 -1.0 0.0 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -8.6 -8.0 -5.9 -1.8 26.4 36.1 -7.5 -5.6 -4.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 -4.2 -2.9 -5.2 -1.7 26.4 37.3 -2.5 -1.5 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -5.0 -3.2 -7.0 -1.6 28.7 38.7 -3.0 -1.9 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -3.2 -2.4 -2.5 -1.3 34.3 39.1 -2.5 -1.5 0.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -11.6 -10.0 -6.6 -1.3 29.9 40.1 -9.3 -7.3 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 -3.5 -2.3 -4.6 -1.5 27.6 38.0 -2.2 -0.9 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 -2.9 -2.3 -6.0 -1.5 28.8 39.0 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 -3.5 -2.1 -5.8 -1.5 28.5 39.1 -1.7 -1.2 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 -5.1 -3.1 -6.0 -1.3 29.9 40.6 -2.9 -2.0 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 -3.8 -2.7 -6.2 -1.4 29.3 40.5 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 -2.9 -2.4 -5.0 -1.8 28.5 35.9 -2.3 -1.1 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 -3.4 -2.2 -4.7 -1.7 27.7 37.6 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 -2.8 -1.3 -6.1 -1.5 28.6 39.4 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -3.1 -3.6 -2.7 -1.6 29.8 36.6 -3.0 -1.5 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -4.8 -4.4 -6.6 -1.5 29.8 39.5 -4.2 -3.2 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -3.6 -3.7 -2.7 -1.4 31.4 37.7 -3.2 -1.8 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -8.7 -6.6 -7.5 -1.1 35.8 43.0 -7.2 -4.9 -4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 -3.4 -2.0 -3.4 -1.5 30.7 38.6 -1.9 -1.2 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -3.9 -4.3 -3.1 -1.7 29.5 34.9 -3.9 -1.7 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 -3.5 -3.6 -3.0 -1.5 31.0 37.1 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -5.0 -1.6 28.1 37.3 -2.8 -1.3 -0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 -3.4 -2.3 -4.0 -1.4 32.0 38.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 -4.2 -1.8 -6.1 -1.0 31.6 41.9 -1.7 -0.8 -0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 -3.6 -1.9 -2.9 -1.3 34.1 39.9 -2.0 -1.1 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 -4.9 -4.1 -5.7 -1.9 26.5 36.4 -3.3 -1.9 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -7.2 -6.4 -6.9 -1.4 32.5 40.5 -6.3 -4.2 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -1.3 33.9 39.1 -2.5 -1.3 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------