***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -4.2 -3.3 -1.9 29.1 34.7 -3.6 -2.1 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -5.0 -5.5 -3.9 -2.3 23.3 30.3 -4.8 -2.8 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4 -2.0 26.7 32.8 -2.8 -1.3 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -9.6 -9.6 -6.0 -2.0 28.5 34.4 -9.4 -6.5 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -5.0 -4.5 -5.0 -1.6 30.6 36.8 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -3.5 -4.3 -6.7 -0.9 38.7 42.1 -5.3 -4.0 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -4.5 -4.9 -3.7 -2.2 24.2 31.0 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -8.5 -11.4 -6.9 -1.4 35.8 39.0 -11.8 -9.1 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -1.5 30.9 37.8 -4.1 -2.2 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -4.1 -6.3 -1.5 32.7 38.1 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -4.2 -5.3 -1.2 34.1 39.6 -4.2 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -4.6 -5.8 -1.1 35.8 40.8 -5.1 -3.0 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -3.2 -5.7 -0.9 39.1 42.2 -4.2 -2.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 -4.8 -4.8 -6.0 -2.5 23.7 30.7 -3.6 -2.1 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -3.8 -3.6 -4.4 -1.3 31.9 39.0 -3.6 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -3.0 -5.6 -1.1 34.6 40.9 -3.1 -1.8 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 -4.6 -4.8 -4.2 -2.6 20.8 28.2 -4.5 -2.6 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -6.4 -5.5 -7.0 -1.8 29.8 36.3 -5.5 -4.2 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -5.1 -5.2 -3.9 -2.3 23.2 30.5 -4.0 -3.2 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -6.6 -9.6 -8.2 -1.6 35.6 37.9 -9.8 -7.3 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -5.0 -4.4 -3.8 -1.8 28.1 35.0 -4.3 -3.0 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -4.7 -5.2 -4.3 -2.6 20.4 27.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 -5.1 -4.9 -4.0 -2.2 23.2 31.0 -4.2 -3.3 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 -5.0 -5.1 -5.5 -2.1 25.8 33.5 -4.6 -3.0 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 -4.9 -4.1 -4.3 -1.8 30.6 35.3 -3.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -3.5 -5.5 -0.5 41.2 44.9 -4.1 -2.9 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -3.7 -1.9 29.7 34.7 -4.2 -2.7 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -5.5 -5.5 -1.7 30.1 36.3 -5.1 -3.3 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -8.0 -8.5 -7.7 -1.7 32.5 37.2 -8.5 -5.2 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -5.0 -5.3 -3.6 -2.1 25.4 31.8 -4.2 -2.5 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------