***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 33.4 38.9 47.1 107.7 58.2 54.7 22.9 27.7 42.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 32.6 29.6 40.4 104.8 57.6 53.1 24.8 28.3 33.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 41.9 49.9 49.5 113.3 63.5 58.4 30.8 35.0 51.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 50.4 54.7 56.3 113.9 60.4 57.8 29.5 45.9 58.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 46.4 51.6 56.5 117.7 64.6 60.0 30.9 42.3 51.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 47.5 47.4 54.8 115.8 66.8 60.5 25.9 35.4 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.7 28.5 38.7 102.3 55.8 51.5 21.2 25.1 33.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 68.9 81.4 62.7 120.7 68.1 62.3 53.8 64.1 74.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 39.7 42.2 58.3 119.6 66.8 61.5 25.8 36.0 41.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 44.5 54.7 63.6 123.0 69.5 64.1 32.0 41.5 49.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 37.3 45.2 58.8 125.3 70.5 64.2 28.3 33.6 40.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 41.8 44.7 56.8 121.7 68.8 62.5 33.2 37.5 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 53.5 54.7 58.9 120.8 70.0 62.6 29.8 44.6 52.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 55.4 55.6 62.6 115.7 66.4 61.0 38.5 51.0 55.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 45.2 44.3 53.6 112.8 62.0 57.5 26.8 39.9 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 39.5 49.5 56.4 120.8 68.8 62.1 27.8 35.8 48.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 33.5 29.8 37.2 99.5 53.0 50.9 23.3 29.1 41.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 42.6 49.6 65.1 119.3 67.3 62.4 31.8 39.4 48.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 37.5 37.6 42.8 106.7 58.6 54.6 27.6 35.0 40.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 48.6 47.9 75.3 110.5 61.9 57.9 32.7 45.4 51.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 44.1 52.6 54.1 115.5 64.5 59.4 26.1 38.5 56.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 37.2 36.4 39.8 100.8 54.4 52.1 23.6 34.2 43.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 33.5 37.2 47.8 109.8 60.1 57.1 24.7 31.7 39.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 52.0 58.0 60.2 119.1 67.9 62.0 34.6 48.7 57.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 47.3 50.1 53.5 108.4 59.3 54.9 29.6 41.5 62.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 38.5 41.9 56.8 116.8 67.7 59.7 29.3 36.2 41.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 38.8 42.0 48.7 107.0 57.7 54.1 24.9 33.2 47.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 38.2 43.4 55.3 117.6 64.6 60.1 29.6 33.4 45.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 71.8 79.7 69.0 117.0 66.8 61.3 57.1 67.8 79.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 35.5 33.2 42.4 106.6 57.6 53.9 21.4 31.1 36.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------