***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.8 12.7 109.5 62.7 52.6 1.1 6.0 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.2 10.5 103.9 58.3 51.3 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.2 14.9 12.6 108.3 63.3 53.0 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 13.8 13.8 102.5 61.1 49.8 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.6 14.0 106.8 60.3 51.2 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.2 11.6 14.7 109.8 64.6 50.5 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.3 10.1 101.5 59.2 50.4 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.2 15.4 116.6 64.1 52.6 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.0 14.3 105.6 59.8 51.7 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.8 15.6 112.2 62.4 53.1 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.4 14.1 114.2 65.1 52.2 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 11.8 13.7 116.1 64.0 51.2 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.6 14.3 110.7 61.9 50.0 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 15.2 16.2 111.3 63.4 54.8 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.3 20.6 12.6 96.9 62.3 48.1 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.9 13.9 111.5 64.0 50.7 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.6 9.5 96.4 58.7 50.1 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.7 10.8 16.5 114.7 62.8 54.4 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.7 11.0 104.8 59.2 52.2 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.9 19.8 116.1 62.9 53.6 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.0 12.6 13.4 106.2 61.4 51.8 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.6 10.2 97.8 59.0 51.0 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.0 12.1 105.4 60.1 53.1 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.9 15.1 111.6 63.0 54.3 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.2 10.9 14.2 108.0 60.1 51.9 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.4 14.0 109.5 59.9 48.5 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.8 13.6 111.5 62.2 53.0 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.6 14.1 13.4 102.5 63.1 49.2 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 16.6 17.9 118.2 63.7 54.8 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.2 11.2 107.3 59.0 51.8 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------