***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.2 12.4 103.0 62.1 53.7 2.6 6.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 10.4 100.5 60.7 52.3 1.1 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.4 11.5 12.3 101.7 63.0 53.4 2.8 4.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.8 13.2 102.4 61.4 53.8 3.8 5.7 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.2 13.2 102.4 60.4 53.4 3.2 5.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.9 14.0 113.2 63.8 56.2 2.2 5.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.7 6.3 10.5 104.2 63.3 53.5 1.8 3.3 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.6 13.5 97.0 56.4 51.5 9.2 13.2 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.6 13.9 102.3 61.3 53.8 2.4 4.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.4 8.5 14.3 101.2 59.4 53.3 3.3 4.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.5 8.2 12.5 100.9 58.6 52.5 2.2 4.2 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.9 12.3 98.5 57.0 52.1 2.7 4.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.6 13.7 106.1 58.8 54.7 3.8 8.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.6 14.1 95.2 60.3 51.1 3.7 7.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.5 12.3 97.9 63.2 52.1 0.7 2.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.6 12.9 105.2 60.6 54.1 3.3 6.9 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.4 7.3 10.2 102.6 63.2 53.1 1.4 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.6 15.3 99.8 59.7 53.1 4.0 7.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.9 10.5 96.7 58.5 51.1 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.3 17.6 94.0 56.6 50.5 4.4 10.5 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.4 13.5 103.1 62.4 54.1 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.8 10.1 96.5 59.2 50.7 1.1 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.3 11.1 93.5 56.8 50.4 2.4 4.4 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.9 14.3 100.9 61.8 53.8 4.7 5.8 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.8 14.2 105.3 62.7 55.0 1.9 4.8 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.9 13.7 106.5 61.2 54.1 3.3 9.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 13.1 105.0 62.0 54.3 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.9 12.4 102.1 63.1 53.6 1.6 2.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 19.0 16.3 98.8 60.3 52.1 7.6 14.3 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.7 10.8 100.0 61.6 52.2 2.1 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------