***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 6.7 7.8 13.7 143.1 75.7 67.1 0.6 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.6 10.1 11.4 125.7 68.7 60.9 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 11.2 13.2 16.6 174.8 82.1 73.7 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 14.8 22.4 20.1 197.0 86.0 77.4 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 13.4 16.8 19.6 197.1 83.7 76.7 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.9 11.9 17.2 176.7 80.1 73.7 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.6 8.3 9.9 110.2 64.8 57.1 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 17.4 22.2 22.9 194.7 84.7 77.9 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 10.8 13.7 20.4 211.9 87.9 80.7 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 13.5 16.1 23.2 212.3 87.4 81.5 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 12.0 21.2 23.2 235.0 89.7 82.9 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 9.8 18.5 21.4 208.1 87.2 79.0 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 11.5 14.7 22.6 215.4 88.6 80.5 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 16.0 18.4 21.6 181.8 82.9 76.3 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 11.5 26.9 20.6 229.7 88.0 80.6 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 10.6 13.4 20.6 210.5 87.0 79.2 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.8 10.1 9.4 107.7 61.2 54.8 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 13.0 17.8 21.2 183.9 82.4 77.5 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.2 15.0 13.2 141.9 73.2 65.3 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 9.1 10.7 22.3 145.7 76.6 70.1 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 10.9 13.1 18.3 187.5 83.0 76.3 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.7 7.5 11.2 122.7 63.5 58.3 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.4 14.9 15.8 162.5 78.3 71.1 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 13.9 21.4 20.3 191.6 84.0 78.3 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 9.3 11.7 16.1 150.0 73.2 68.1 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 10.3 13.3 19.1 181.1 81.7 74.1 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 10.9 11.9 13.5 134.4 72.3 65.0 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 11.1 18.5 20.8 228.8 88.6 81.3 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 16.0 19.3 21.0 164.3 80.0 74.1 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 9.6 11.8 12.3 134.8 72.9 64.3 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------