***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.3 6.7 0.2 47.9 50.0 5.9 7.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.2 6.4 6.7 0.2 49.3 49.5 4.8 6.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.3 7.3 6.8 -0.1 46.9 47.2 5.5 7.7 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.4 0.7 3.5 -0.2 43.8 46.7 -0.8 0.8 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.1 6.4 4.8 -0.3 43.5 45.2 5.5 7.3 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.9 3.7 0.0 51.2 49.0 4.7 6.9 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.8 6.2 6.7 0.3 49.2 50.3 4.4 6.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -1.8 3.4 -0.9 40.0 40.5 -2.4 -1.3 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.6 7.2 5.5 -0.4 42.7 44.5 5.7 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.5 6.7 4.1 -0.9 38.9 40.3 5.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.5 4.8 -0.5 42.1 43.3 5.4 7.9 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.7 4.3 -0.6 42.2 43.0 5.3 7.5 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.6 4.4 -0.4 44.4 44.4 5.6 8.1 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.1 5.5 -0.8 40.7 42.0 5.8 8.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 7.2 6.8 5.2 0.6 52.0 53.5 4.9 6.6 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.8 4.5 -0.3 45.1 45.2 5.9 8.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.7 6.0 6.5 0.2 49.0 49.5 4.1 6.1 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.7 3.8 -1.1 37.0 39.1 5.2 6.6 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.4 6.7 0.1 48.6 48.7 4.8 6.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.5 2.0 -0.9 41.4 40.4 2.2 3.4 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.3 7.1 6.3 -0.3 44.5 46.0 5.6 7.7 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.1 6.5 0.0 47.1 48.2 4.6 6.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.0 6.7 -0.1 47.6 47.4 5.2 7.1 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.9 6.4 5.4 -0.8 39.2 41.3 5.9 8.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.9 5.9 5.2 0.1 48.0 49.7 4.5 6.2 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.1 4.1 0.0 51.1 49.5 5.4 7.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.0 6.2 0.2 49.5 50.3 5.3 7.1 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.0 5.9 4.2 0.0 45.4 47.9 5.2 7.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.0 3.2 -1.0 38.6 39.3 1.3 3.6 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.7 6.7 0.2 50.0 49.7 4.8 6.7 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------