***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.9 10.2 8.0 0.3 50.0 52.4 6.0 10.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.4 8.5 8.2 0.6 52.7 54.3 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.4 9.0 8.5 0.4 51.6 52.9 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 0.0 2.9 5.4 0.2 51.4 51.6 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.1 8.5 6.4 0.1 48.3 50.9 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.1 8.4 4.9 0.2 51.3 50.6 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.3 8.6 8.1 0.5 52.7 53.8 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -1.5 -0.3 5.1 -0.1 46.7 49.4 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.9 7.1 0.1 48.5 50.8 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 8.6 5.9 -0.1 48.2 49.8 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.8 9.3 6.3 0.1 47.0 50.3 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.2 8.5 5.9 0.0 47.0 49.8 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.6 9.0 5.3 -0.1 47.6 49.3 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.6 11.3 7.3 0.3 54.5 52.4 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.4 6.2 0.6 53.0 53.9 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.8 9.3 5.9 0.1 48.2 50.3 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.8 8.8 8.1 0.5 53.8 54.3 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.0 9.5 5.8 -0.1 50.3 49.8 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.3 9.2 8.4 0.6 53.8 54.4 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.2 5.2 3.2 -0.3 46.6 49.1 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.7 8.4 7.7 0.2 48.4 51.5 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.3 10.7 8.3 0.6 55.2 54.7 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.8 11.0 8.6 0.6 55.3 54.3 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 7.1 10.9 7.2 0.2 52.7 51.4 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.3 7.3 6.2 0.2 49.3 51.4 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 7.6 10.1 5.0 -0.1 48.3 49.8 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.7 7.9 7.3 0.2 49.4 51.7 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.1 8.9 5.7 0.3 51.7 52.1 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.9 5.4 4.9 -0.2 48.8 49.5 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.3 8.2 0.5 52.0 53.9 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------