***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.1 6.6 -0.3 50.4 48.4 4.5 7.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.4 6.5 -0.2 50.6 48.6 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.4 7.0 -0.2 50.9 49.6 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.0 0.6 3.9 -0.4 48.8 47.9 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.7 5.8 5.0 -0.5 47.5 48.0 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.9 3.5 -0.7 48.1 46.2 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.0 4.7 6.5 -0.3 49.8 47.9 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -2.5 3.7 -0.8 45.6 45.5 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.3 5.6 -0.5 47.9 48.2 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.7 4.4 -0.8 46.3 46.2 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.8 4.8 -0.6 46.8 47.0 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.7 4.6 -0.7 46.3 46.5 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.7 4.0 -0.7 46.5 45.6 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.8 5.8 -0.4 48.5 47.9 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.0 4.9 0.0 52.7 51.0 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.7 4.4 -0.6 46.3 46.5 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.9 4.8 6.4 -0.2 49.3 48.2 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.8 4.3 -0.8 45.0 45.7 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.1 6.8 -0.1 51.8 49.4 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.5 3.1 2.0 -1.0 42.6 44.2 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 5.9 6.3 -0.3 49.0 48.9 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.7 5.5 6.5 -0.1 50.0 49.1 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.8 7.0 -0.1 53.1 50.1 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.6 5.6 -0.5 48.2 47.5 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.1 4.9 -0.5 49.2 48.1 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.3 4.0 -0.6 47.0 46.6 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.5 5.8 -0.5 48.6 47.2 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.5 4.3 -0.3 49.4 48.6 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.9 3.1 3.5 -0.9 44.2 45.2 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.9 6.5 -0.2 51.0 48.8 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------