***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.6 6.7 0.8 54.6 55.2 2.3 3.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 3.9 6.8 0.8 51.9 54.9 2.4 3.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.4 6.9 0.6 52.0 53.4 2.8 4.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 0.1 -0.8 3.0 0.3 49.8 51.5 -3.2 -0.8 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.2 4.8 0.2 51.8 51.5 2.7 4.0 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.7 3.7 0.4 54.2 53.5 2.7 5.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.4 6.8 0.9 53.2 55.6 2.1 2.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.0 3.5 -0.3 48.9 48.6 -4.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.3 5.7 0.2 49.8 51.1 2.7 4.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.8 4.3 -0.2 48.1 48.6 3.2 4.9 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.0 4.9 0.1 50.2 50.4 3.4 5.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.9 4.3 0.0 50.5 50.3 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.5 4.7 0.1 50.5 51.1 3.3 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.4 5.9 0.0 51.4 50.0 3.3 4.3 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.0 5.1 1.1 54.9 56.4 3.1 4.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.4 4.5 0.2 51.3 51.5 3.5 5.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.0 3.5 6.6 0.8 53.1 55.6 2.3 3.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.5 4.1 -0.3 47.9 48.5 2.8 4.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.1 6.8 0.7 51.3 54.2 2.2 3.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.7 2.5 -0.1 50.4 50.2 0.6 1.7 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.5 6.5 0.4 52.7 52.6 2.6 4.1 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.2 6.6 0.7 51.4 54.1 2.6 3.9 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.1 6.8 0.5 50.7 53.0 2.4 3.9 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.4 5.8 0.0 49.5 49.7 3.1 4.5 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.5 5.3 0.7 55.0 55.3 2.2 3.8 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.9 4.0 0.3 54.0 53.3 3.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.3 6.3 0.8 54.9 55.5 2.6 3.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.4 3.9 0.5 50.9 52.4 3.7 4.3 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 1.9 3.7 -0.2 50.5 49.7 -0.9 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.3 3.9 6.8 0.8 52.5 54.9 2.1 3.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------