***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 7.3 5.8 5.5 0.1 45.2 46.6 3.0 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 6.2 5.2 5.3 -0.3 43.6 43.5 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.4 5.2 4.8 -1.2 39.4 39.2 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 1.5 0.7 1.5 -0.8 44.8 43.3 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.1 5.6 3.1 -1.3 39.4 38.5 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 6.3 5.9 2.8 0.0 47.6 46.8 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 6.0 5.1 5.5 0.1 45.9 45.8 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 1.2 -2.3 31.0 31.3 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.2 6.5 3.8 -1.6 37.9 37.0 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.3 5.0 1.7 -2.6 30.2 30.6 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.2 3.2 -1.7 35.9 35.4 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.4 2.4 -1.6 35.8 35.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.2 3.6 -1.0 36.6 38.5 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.6 5.1 2.8 -3.2 30.5 29.8 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 99 1 100 7.3 7.3 4.7 0.8 53.8 53.2 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.9 6.0 3.1 -1.0 39.3 39.8 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 6.1 5.0 4.9 -0.4 45.4 43.8 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.6 0.9 -3.2 26.3 27.4 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 6.9 5.4 5.0 -0.8 41.2 41.2 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 0.8 1.4 0.1 -2.2 30.0 31.3 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.5 6.2 4.7 -1.3 39.3 38.6 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 6.9 5.4 4.6 -1.0 40.8 40.3 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.6 4.9 4.5 -1.4 38.2 37.9 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.3 5.5 2.8 -3.0 29.2 29.6 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 6.2 5.5 4.6 0.1 46.7 47.6 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 6.8 6.2 3.5 0.3 48.5 49.0 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 7.2 6.6 5.4 0.4 47.8 48.8 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 8.6 7.8 2.7 -0.5 45.4 44.9 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 0.8 1.0 0.5 -3.0 25.3 27.7 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 6.5 5.6 5.4 -0.2 44.0 43.9 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------