***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 0.8 0.5 -0.1 0.8 55.0 54.8 -1.7 0.1 2.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 57.0 55.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.5 0.0 0.8 54.4 56.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -3.3 -4.3 -3.3 0.4 50.1 53.3 -5.1 -4.3 -1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -3.5 -1.8 -2.9 0.3 46.7 53.2 -2.7 -1.5 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -1.7 -4.8 0.4 50.9 53.7 -4.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.8 56.2 55.4 -2.4 -0.3 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -8.9 -6.9 -4.9 0.1 46.9 52.5 -8.3 -6.8 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -0.8 -2.5 0.3 46.1 53.5 -2.0 -0.1 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -2.5 -1.2 -4.1 0.2 47.0 52.8 -1.9 -0.7 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -1.1 -3.7 0.3 46.1 53.0 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -1.9 -4.3 0.2 46.3 52.5 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 -2.7 -0.8 -4.3 0.3 49.3 52.4 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -1.4 0.2 -2.4 0.5 48.1 54.6 -1.9 0.3 1.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 0.4 0.3 -2.0 0.7 54.3 56.0 -2.1 -0.2 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -0.1 -4.0 0.3 49.0 53.0 -1.5 0.0 1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -0.2 0.0 0.8 55.3 55.3 -2.2 -0.4 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -4.2 -2.9 -4.7 0.2 48.5 53.0 -3.8 -2.6 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -2.7 0.3 0.0 0.9 57.6 56.2 -2.1 -0.6 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -8.7 -5.6 -6.1 0.1 48.7 52.9 -8.3 -5.3 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -2.4 -0.6 -1.1 0.5 50.2 54.2 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -2.9 0.0 -0.2 0.9 56.2 56.3 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.9 56.6 56.6 -2.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -2.7 -0.8 -2.8 0.4 49.8 54.6 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.2 -1.8 0.5 50.1 53.3 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 -2.5 -0.3 -4.6 0.2 46.5 51.9 -2.4 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 0.7 53.4 54.1 -1.9 -0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -4.3 -2.6 -3.0 0.5 51.4 54.0 -3.9 -2.6 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -4.8 -3.1 -5.1 0.2 48.3 52.7 -4.6 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -2.6 0.3 0.1 0.9 57.7 56.1 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------