***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.5 -1.0 0.2 48.3 51.6 -1.9 -1.4 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -1.7 -1.0 0.4 51.3 52.8 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.0 -0.9 0.4 51.2 52.7 -0.7 -0.1 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -4.4 -6.0 -4.2 -0.2 42.4 48.5 -7.3 -5.1 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -3.6 -2.5 -3.8 -0.2 43.4 48.2 -2.9 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -4.9 -2.8 -5.7 -0.1 42.6 49.5 -3.7 -2.6 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.6 -1.0 0.3 52.8 52.2 -2.4 -1.8 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -11.1 -8.7 -5.9 -0.7 39.6 45.3 -9.2 -7.5 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -2.9 -1.3 -3.4 -0.1 44.7 49.0 -1.7 -1.0 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -2.9 -1.7 -5.1 -0.4 41.7 46.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -3.2 -1.8 -4.7 -0.4 41.5 47.3 -2.1 -1.5 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -5.1 -3.4 -5.2 -0.5 41.1 46.6 -3.5 -2.7 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -3.6 -1.8 -5.2 -0.3 43.2 48.0 -2.9 -1.7 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -1.1 -3.4 0.0 47.0 49.7 -1.9 -1.1 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -0.8 -2.8 0.4 48.3 52.9 -2.1 -0.8 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 -2.7 -1.3 -4.9 -0.3 42.5 48.2 -1.7 -1.0 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -1.6 -1.0 0.4 53.3 52.4 -2.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -3.8 -5.7 -0.4 40.8 46.9 -4.5 -3.6 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.9 -1.0 0.5 51.2 53.2 -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -9.5 -7.4 -7.0 -0.6 39.7 45.6 -8.2 -6.1 -5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -1.7 -2.0 0.0 47.3 50.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 0.5 53.7 53.1 -3.2 -1.7 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -2.1 -1.2 0.5 50.9 53.4 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -1.7 -3.7 0.0 45.0 49.5 -2.3 -1.5 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 -1.0 -1.8 -2.7 -0.2 44.3 48.9 -2.6 -1.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -1.8 -5.2 -0.2 43.7 48.3 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.5 -1.6 0.0 46.8 50.1 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.5 -4.0 0.0 44.6 49.8 -3.3 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -7.1 -5.1 -6.1 -0.4 40.8 46.5 -6.3 -4.0 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 0.4 51.6 53.1 -2.5 -1.5 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------