***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 56.6 127.3 71.2 67.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 42.2 44.0 52.3 127.9 71.0 68.5 24.8 28.3 33.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 55.5 55.2 55.8 124.6 70.5 66.8 30.8 35.0 51.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 61.6 66.7 62.8 126.9 74.1 66.9 29.5 45.9 58.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 45.8 54.0 61.4 122.4 72.1 64.6 30.9 42.3 51.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 49.1 49.7 64.7 122.0 71.3 67.1 25.9 35.4 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 39.0 42.7 52.5 128.4 71.1 68.0 21.2 25.1 33.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 80.8 85.4 66.7 122.4 72.0 65.3 53.8 64.1 74.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 39.7 43.6 60.9 118.9 69.0 63.1 25.8 36.0 41.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 44.5 54.4 64.6 118.0 69.0 62.9 32.0 41.5 49.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 45.3 50.0 58.3 121.9 72.9 64.5 28.3 33.6 40.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 51.6 57.1 59.6 124.6 75.2 66.5 33.2 37.5 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 54.0 57.4 63.2 124.2 74.2 68.2 29.8 44.6 52.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 65.9 68.2 65.8 122.5 72.7 66.7 38.5 51.0 55.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 55.6 51.6 58.7 125.7 73.0 65.6 26.8 39.9 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 47.7 51.8 60.0 124.0 74.2 66.9 27.8 35.8 48.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 42.1 46.4 50.2 126.6 71.6 67.2 23.3 29.1 41.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 42.3 49.7 71.8 117.9 67.4 63.2 31.8 39.4 48.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 43.5 43.4 53.3 127.7 71.5 68.6 27.6 35.0 40.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 54.6 58.6 91.4 126.5 73.7 67.8 32.7 45.4 51.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 54.3 60.9 58.8 122.7 70.6 65.3 26.1 38.5 56.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 42.8 44.0 51.6 125.2 71.0 67.0 23.6 34.2 43.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 38.6 39.8 56.1 126.8 73.7 68.9 24.7 31.7 39.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 51.5 58.3 64.1 119.6 69.5 64.6 34.6 48.7 57.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 58.9 64.7 64.8 128.3 71.7 68.2 29.6 41.5 62.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 44.2 45.4 64.2 128.0 76.5 70.5 29.3 36.2 41.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 50.4 54.4 61.8 128.6 71.6 68.6 24.9 33.2 47.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 50.4 50.7 59.5 124.6 73.1 65.9 29.6 33.4 45.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 71.4 80.3 79.8 122.0 70.7 65.9 57.1 67.8 79.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 45.2 45.9 53.2 127.3 70.3 68.2 21.4 31.1 36.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------