***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 13.2 123.3 64.8 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 8.3 10.6 13.7 137.9 74.1 65.3 1.1 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.3 12.0 13.1 122.7 67.6 60.1 2.8 4.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.5 14.4 113.7 65.6 57.3 3.8 5.7 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.6 13.9 110.0 61.2 55.3 3.2 5.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.8 14.5 99.8 63.6 53.0 2.2 5.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 7.9 9.6 13.8 140.7 75.8 65.5 1.8 3.3 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.9 17.3 14.4 102.5 57.4 52.9 9.2 13.2 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.1 5.7 13.8 108.6 61.8 54.7 2.4 4.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.0 7.8 14.3 102.8 57.9 52.7 3.3 4.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.1 12.5 101.7 58.5 52.9 2.2 4.2 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.9 12.5 102.9 60.9 53.2 2.7 4.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.4 12.2 13.9 104.2 65.1 54.8 3.8 8.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.1 16.0 116.0 64.2 57.5 3.7 7.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.1 13.5 112.9 66.6 57.5 0.7 2.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.8 13.0 102.0 62.4 53.9 3.3 6.9 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.4 8.8 13.4 135.3 72.3 63.9 1.4 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.6 16.4 104.8 59.7 53.8 4.0 7.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 11.4 13.5 133.0 72.8 63.6 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.9 21.6 113.7 63.1 57.4 4.4 10.5 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.5 13.2 112.7 62.5 55.7 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 10.5 11.0 13.7 130.5 71.2 62.2 1.1 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.8 9.5 13.7 126.7 71.8 61.2 2.4 4.4 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.8 14.9 110.5 61.5 55.7 4.7 5.8 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.3 8.6 15.4 122.0 65.7 59.9 1.9 4.8 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.4 13.8 106.2 68.6 55.1 3.3 9.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.9 15.0 127.7 66.6 62.4 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.1 8.8 13.4 107.8 64.9 55.8 1.6 2.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.1 19.2 18.6 108.9 60.8 55.5 7.6 14.3 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.7 7.4 13.6 136.6 72.2 65.0 2.1 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------