***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 14.7 119.3 65.4 55.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.5 12.8 106.9 61.3 52.7 1.2 3.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.0 14.2 112.6 59.4 53.5 0.6 7.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.5 17.1 16.0 125.0 63.6 58.6 5.9 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.1 17.5 15.8 117.5 62.3 55.6 3.4 11.2 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.7 8.8 16.7 117.3 64.3 57.9 4.5 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.3 13.1 110.0 62.8 53.9 0.6 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.1 16.3 110.8 62.3 54.0 12.4 21.6 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.0 15.6 111.0 62.5 53.3 1.5 9.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.7 16.1 16.1 107.9 62.0 52.7 4.9 11.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.0 14.8 115.7 63.8 55.9 1.8 11.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.7 17.1 14.9 115.6 64.6 55.7 4.6 13.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.5 16.1 117.9 63.9 57.7 4.4 10.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.6 16.1 107.2 57.1 52.2 3.7 13.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.7 14.8 124.2 68.1 59.5 1.5 8.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.8 13.4 15.4 121.2 66.2 58.5 1.7 7.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.7 12.3 103.7 61.4 52.6 1.1 3.2 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.9 17.6 105.7 60.0 51.6 4.2 8.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.5 13.1 108.5 59.9 53.1 1.8 5.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 10.5 21.4 109.6 60.5 53.5 5.4 7.4 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 13.4 15.4 116.6 61.7 55.2 1.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.4 12.4 101.7 59.1 52.0 2.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.8 14.0 111.5 60.0 53.8 2.1 8.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.1 13.8 15.9 107.5 60.2 51.8 5.4 9.7 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.7 16.9 125.6 62.8 57.5 1.1 6.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.1 16.0 121.0 65.3 58.3 2.7 6.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.0 16.0 122.2 64.6 56.6 0.6 5.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.1 13.8 15.1 123.1 66.3 59.3 1.6 7.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.3 24.7 19.2 107.8 59.7 52.6 10.1 18.3 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.0 13.2 109.0 61.9 52.8 1.6 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------