***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 9999.0 0.0 15.8 148.5 73.4 68.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.2 17.8 14.3 158.2 75.9 71.4 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 10.7 13.0 16.3 156.3 76.6 70.5 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.7 15.4 18.4 151.3 75.0 71.2 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.9 15.0 18.2 151.2 76.6 71.0 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.1 11.1 19.4 160.9 77.3 72.3 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 7.7 9.2 14.2 154.1 76.7 70.8 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 16.8 20.2 21.6 168.2 78.7 74.1 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 9.9 11.8 18.3 152.3 77.5 71.4 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 12.5 14.7 20.2 160.8 78.7 73.7 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.0 13.3 18.3 158.7 78.4 72.4 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 9.0 11.5 19.5 165.4 78.5 73.0 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 10.9 12.8 19.6 158.3 78.8 71.9 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 15.3 18.0 19.8 171.8 79.7 74.4 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 9.9 12.1 17.4 147.3 76.4 71.2 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 9.7 12.3 18.6 158.6 79.0 72.3 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 11.1 13.2 13.5 155.7 78.8 70.9 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 13.1 17.2 22.7 171.2 81.6 76.1 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.4 16.4 15.0 161.1 76.5 71.5 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 10.0 14.4 29.4 180.9 81.6 76.9 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 10.1 12.4 17.4 151.2 77.3 70.4 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 11.5 15.1 14.3 157.1 77.2 70.8 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.9 15.9 16.3 164.8 79.8 72.2 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 12.5 16.6 19.8 168.0 79.6 74.2 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 9.2 11.2 17.6 141.5 70.8 67.2 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 10.1 12.1 20.4 159.3 76.0 71.0 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 10.7 11.6 16.6 142.9 70.8 67.1 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 9.8 12.4 17.7 152.4 76.3 71.9 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 16.3 20.5 25.5 180.2 82.4 77.1 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 8.9 12.1 14.8 155.9 76.3 70.5 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------