***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 5.6 -0.7 42.1 42.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.3 5.1 5.2 -1.0 37.8 38.9 4.8 6.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.3 6.7 5.9 -0.8 41.1 41.3 5.5 7.7 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.5 0.7 4.1 -0.3 44.8 45.8 -0.8 0.8 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.1 6.4 4.6 -0.5 43.3 44.1 5.5 7.3 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.4 5.9 3.3 -0.4 41.5 45.0 4.7 6.9 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.1 4.8 5.0 -1.0 38.8 38.8 4.4 6.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.8 -1.9 3.3 -1.0 38.1 39.0 -2.4 -1.3 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.6 7.2 5.3 -0.6 42.3 43.0 5.7 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.2 6.7 4.1 -0.9 39.5 40.2 5.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.1 4.5 -0.6 40.6 43.4 5.4 7.9 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.1 5.8 4.1 -0.8 38.2 40.9 5.3 7.5 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.6 6.3 3.8 -0.7 38.0 42.2 5.6 8.1 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.1 6.3 4.9 -1.2 36.8 38.0 5.8 8.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.3 5.6 4.7 -0.1 44.7 47.3 4.9 6.6 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.1 7.2 4.3 -0.5 41.2 44.2 5.9 8.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.9 4.3 4.8 -1.2 35.3 37.8 4.1 6.1 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.5 5.9 3.5 -1.2 37.9 37.8 5.2 6.6 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 5.3 5.5 -1.0 37.6 39.3 4.8 6.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.1 2.3 1.2 -1.4 34.8 34.4 2.2 3.4 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.1 5.7 -0.6 42.4 43.1 5.6 7.7 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.5 4.6 5.1 -1.1 35.3 38.4 4.6 6.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.8 5.6 5.7 -1.0 37.7 39.5 5.2 7.1 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.8 6.4 4.9 -1.0 39.2 39.4 5.9 8.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.7 4.3 -0.6 43.0 42.9 4.5 6.2 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.6 5.9 3.5 -0.7 37.1 41.3 5.4 7.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.0 4.8 -0.8 42.7 41.5 5.3 7.1 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.0 5.7 4.6 -0.2 44.9 47.0 5.2 7.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.3 2.5 -1.3 36.4 36.6 1.3 3.6 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.4 5.4 5.4 -0.9 40.2 39.9 4.8 6.7 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------