***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.5 -0.1 51.6 49.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 5.2 6.7 7.2 -0.3 45.7 48.6 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.3 9.1 7.8 -0.1 52.1 50.3 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.2 3.1 6.2 0.2 54.9 52.8 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.1 10.8 6.6 0.2 56.1 52.3 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.0 11.1 5.2 0.4 58.7 52.6 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.0 6.7 7.1 -0.3 45.9 48.1 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -1.4 1.1 5.3 -0.1 53.4 50.1 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.9 11.4 7.1 0.1 54.9 51.5 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 10.2 6.1 0.0 53.8 50.7 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.5 11.0 6.4 0.1 55.4 51.9 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 6.2 9.5 6.1 0.0 54.3 50.7 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.7 10.5 5.7 0.1 54.2 51.1 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.1 6.8 -0.2 50.9 49.4 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.5 6.5 0.3 53.5 53.5 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.9 11.3 6.1 0.2 56.4 52.1 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.7 5.9 6.9 -0.4 43.6 47.4 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 10.0 5.4 -0.2 52.1 49.5 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.3 7.1 7.5 -0.2 46.2 49.1 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.2 3.0 -0.4 48.3 47.7 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.8 11.3 7.5 0.1 55.8 51.3 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.3 7.1 7.2 -0.4 43.8 47.9 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 7.8 7.7 -0.2 47.6 49.7 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.8 6.8 -0.1 52.4 50.0 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.0 6.2 -0.1 52.6 50.4 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.9 10.9 5.4 0.1 54.2 50.6 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.0 8.8 6.7 -0.2 51.2 49.3 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.1 6.6 0.4 55.9 53.6 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.5 4.3 -0.3 50.9 48.7 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 5.5 8.0 7.4 -0.2 48.1 49.2 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------