***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 49.0 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.2 6.4 -0.2 45.9 48.5 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.0 7.1 0.1 48.7 51.0 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.4 1.3 5.4 0.3 54.9 52.2 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.3 5.9 0.4 55.4 52.8 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.6 4.5 0.5 53.9 54.5 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.5 6.2 -0.3 46.5 47.9 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.5 4.6 0.1 50.5 52.2 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.2 6.5 0.3 52.7 52.7 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.8 5.4 0.2 51.3 52.2 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.3 5.7 0.4 53.2 53.7 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.3 5.4 0.3 51.8 53.2 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.3 4.9 0.3 50.3 53.6 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.2 6.4 0.0 50.8 50.2 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.0 5.9 5.5 0.3 52.0 51.4 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.7 5.4 0.4 53.3 54.0 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.5 5.9 -0.4 45.4 46.8 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.3 4.8 -0.1 49.0 50.7 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.8 6.8 -0.1 46.5 49.3 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.5 2.4 -0.3 45.7 49.0 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.4 6.9 0.3 52.4 52.2 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.0 6.3 -0.3 47.4 47.6 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.2 7.0 0.0 47.5 50.1 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.0 6.3 0.1 50.1 50.9 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.3 5.4 0.1 51.4 50.7 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.8 4.6 0.3 50.1 53.2 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.5 5.9 0.0 48.5 49.8 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.1 5.7 0.4 55.0 53.0 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.3 3.8 -0.2 47.8 50.0 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.8 6.6 -0.1 47.1 49.3 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------