***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.7 -1.9 31.6 36.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.1 2.3 3.3 -2.2 31.2 35.1 2.4 3.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.7 2.4 3.8 -2.1 30.7 36.7 2.8 4.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 2.3 -1.6 32.6 39.0 -3.2 -0.8 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.7 2.6 -1.8 32.8 38.2 2.7 4.0 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.5 2.7 1.6 -1.6 33.3 38.7 2.7 5.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.7 2.0 3.1 -2.2 31.1 34.9 2.1 2.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -4.6 -4.4 1.6 -2.1 30.9 35.1 -4.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.6 2.7 3.1 -2.0 32.4 37.5 2.7 4.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.8 3.1 2.2 -2.2 31.7 35.8 3.2 4.9 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.4 2.5 -1.8 33.3 37.9 3.4 5.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.9 2.6 2.3 -2.0 31.0 36.1 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.3 1.9 -1.9 31.0 36.7 3.3 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 2.3 2.9 2.8 -2.6 29.2 33.7 3.3 4.3 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.3 2.7 -1.3 34.3 40.5 3.1 4.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.3 3.5 2.3 -1.7 33.1 38.2 3.5 5.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.2 2.9 -2.3 31.4 34.1 2.3 3.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.9 2.6 1.6 -2.4 30.1 34.0 2.8 4.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 2.0 3.5 -2.2 31.1 35.3 2.2 3.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 -2.4 29.0 32.4 0.6 1.7 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.5 2.5 3.6 -2.0 31.8 37.6 2.6 4.1 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.1 2.4 3.2 -2.3 31.9 34.3 2.6 3.9 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.2 3.6 -2.3 30.5 35.2 2.4 3.9 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.9 -2.4 29.9 34.8 3.1 4.5 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.2 2.2 2.4 -1.9 31.7 37.0 2.2 3.8 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.3 3.4 1.8 -1.8 30.6 36.2 3.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.5 2.6 2.9 -2.0 32.0 36.5 2.6 3.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.8 2.7 -1.5 34.1 39.9 3.7 4.3 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.9 -1.1 0.7 -2.5 29.3 33.0 -0.9 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 2.1 3.5 -2.1 31.2 35.9 2.1 3.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------