***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 -0.7 42.5 41.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 4.3 3.9 -1.4 35.4 36.8 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.5 5.0 4.8 -1.0 38.7 39.1 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 1.4 1.0 2.6 -0.2 46.3 45.0 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 7.9 6.7 3.5 -0.7 41.6 41.5 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.6 5.0 2.1 -0.9 39.3 39.6 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.8 3.4 3.7 -1.4 36.2 37.2 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.6 -2.5 1.8 -2.0 33.3 32.9 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 8.7 6.8 4.4 -0.9 41.4 40.5 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 5.4 2.8 -1.7 35.7 35.0 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 8.5 5.6 3.4 -1.0 38.6 39.4 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.1 6.4 2.6 -1.5 36.1 36.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.4 5.6 2.9 -1.2 39.0 37.4 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.9 5.7 3.8 -2.1 33.5 32.6 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 98 2 100 7.3 7.2 4.3 0.4 48.6 49.0 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 8.7 7.0 3.2 -0.7 41.4 40.5 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 6.6 4.2 3.4 -1.6 37.6 37.4 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.9 4.0 2.1 -2.1 30.4 30.9 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 4.3 4.1 -1.4 35.6 36.4 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 -2.5 25.6 26.9 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 8.2 6.9 4.8 -0.8 43.1 41.7 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 6.8 5.3 3.8 -1.5 37.9 37.6 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 4.8 4.4 -1.5 36.3 35.5 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 5.7 3.8 -1.8 34.8 34.0 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 6.4 5.3 3.4 -0.6 43.4 42.5 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.0 2.1 -1.3 36.5 36.8 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.7 5.5 3.9 -0.8 40.7 40.4 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 95 5 100 8.6 7.9 3.6 0.1 47.2 46.7 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 0.7 1.3 1.3 -2.2 28.4 29.6 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.2 4.1 4.2 -1.2 36.4 37.7 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------