***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.4 0.2 51.5 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 0.1 50.0 51.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 1.9 1.1 -0.7 0.1 50.2 52.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -3.5 -4.3 -2.5 0.4 51.3 54.7 -5.1 -4.3 -1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.3 -2.3 0.3 51.7 54.1 -2.7 -1.5 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -1.7 -4.2 0.3 48.7 53.8 -4.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 0.1 50.2 52.1 -2.4 -0.3 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -6.2 -6.8 -3.9 0.2 49.8 51.9 -8.3 -6.8 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.2 -1.8 0.3 52.7 53.7 -2.0 -0.1 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -0.2 -0.2 -3.2 0.2 52.2 52.7 -1.9 -0.7 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 0.0 0.1 -2.7 0.2 52.2 53.2 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -1.6 -3.0 0.1 49.4 52.2 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -0.1 -0.7 -3.4 0.2 50.4 52.7 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.3 -2.1 0.0 49.9 51.1 -1.9 0.3 1.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 0.2 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 51.6 55.8 -2.1 -0.2 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 0.7 0.1 -3.0 0.3 50.6 53.6 -1.5 0.0 1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 0.3 -0.4 -0.9 0.0 47.9 50.9 -2.2 -0.4 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.1 -4.0 0.1 52.5 51.7 -3.8 -2.6 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 49.4 51.7 -2.1 -0.6 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -4.4 -4.8 -5.5 0.1 52.9 50.6 -8.3 -5.3 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 0.2 51.8 53.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.8 -0.8 0.0 47.1 50.8 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 0.1 50.1 51.4 -2.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -0.1 -0.8 -2.4 0.1 51.0 51.6 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.2 -2.0 0.2 50.5 52.4 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 0.5 0.0 -3.3 0.1 47.9 50.9 -2.4 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 0.1 -0.4 -1.2 0.2 51.6 52.4 -1.9 -0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -2.6 -2.2 0.5 51.5 55.7 -3.9 -2.6 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -2.7 -4.7 0.1 51.6 50.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 0.4 -0.4 -0.7 0.2 50.6 52.1 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------