***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.8 -1.2 31.2 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 -4.8 -5.0 -3.5 -1.6 29.7 36.4 -4.9 -2.9 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 -2.9 -2.9 -3.1 -1.2 30.3 38.7 -2.8 -1.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -9.2 -9.9 -5.4 -1.3 30.8 39.4 -9.8 -6.9 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 -5.0 -4.1 -5.0 -1.3 29.4 39.2 -4.0 -2.7 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -5.8 -5.4 -6.6 -1.4 31.2 39.0 -4.8 -3.6 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -4.3 -4.6 -3.5 -1.6 30.2 36.7 -4.2 -2.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -11.7 -11.5 -6.7 -2.0 28.9 35.2 -11.1 -9.1 -7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 -4.9 -4.4 -4.4 -1.3 30.4 39.0 -4.0 -2.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 -4.7 -4.3 -6.0 -1.8 30.1 36.3 -3.9 -2.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -4.2 -4.4 -5.2 -1.3 29.3 39.1 -4.0 -2.3 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 -5.6 -5.4 -5.7 -1.8 27.8 36.9 -5.0 -3.6 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 -4.5 -4.6 -5.8 -1.5 28.2 38.6 -3.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -4.4 -4.3 -5.3 -2.3 28.5 33.1 -3.8 -2.3 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -3.5 -4.7 -1.1 33.7 40.5 -3.5 -2.0 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 -5.5 -1.2 29.2 39.9 -3.3 -2.0 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -4.7 -4.4 -3.8 -1.8 29.8 35.1 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 -6.3 -5.7 -7.0 -2.4 29.2 33.6 -5.6 -4.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -5.2 -4.6 -3.5 -1.5 30.0 36.4 -4.4 -3.3 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 -10.3 -9.2 -8.4 -2.5 27.7 32.3 -8.9 -8.3 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 -4.9 -4.5 -3.4 -1.2 30.6 39.8 -4.2 -3.1 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 -3.7 -1.8 29.5 34.9 -4.5 -2.9 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 -5.1 -4.8 -3.7 -1.7 28.7 35.9 -4.4 -3.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 -5.0 -4.9 -5.1 -2.0 29.2 35.1 -4.7 -2.9 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -4.1 -4.8 -1.4 29.8 37.4 -3.6 -3.1 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 -4.7 -4.1 -5.6 -1.5 28.8 38.4 -3.7 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -4.7 -4.0 -3.8 -1.4 30.6 37.6 -3.8 -3.1 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -4.8 -5.5 -4.9 -1.1 32.4 40.6 -5.4 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -8.4 -8.2 -7.7 -2.6 27.8 32.1 -7.9 -5.7 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -3.2 -1.4 29.9 37.6 -4.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------