***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.0 0.5 51.2 51.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 -0.9 -4.6 -2.9 -0.4 38.6 42.4 -4.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 0.6 0.6 -2.1 0.4 51.3 50.1 -1.5 0.3 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 98 2 100 -4.5 -4.5 -3.7 1.0 50.9 51.8 -6.5 -4.6 -3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 -1.7 -1.7 -3.2 1.1 52.0 52.7 -4.2 -1.8 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 94 6 100 -3.0 -3.1 -4.8 1.3 53.4 55.3 -4.5 -3.1 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 -0.7 -3.7 -2.9 -0.4 40.4 43.0 -4.3 -0.9 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -7.6 -8.4 -5.6 -0.1 41.1 43.0 -8.8 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 96 4 100 -0.8 -0.5 -2.7 1.2 54.6 53.6 -3.7 -0.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 -0.9 -1.8 -4.7 0.3 45.8 46.3 -4.1 -1.2 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 -1.4 -1.8 -3.6 0.9 49.3 50.8 -4.5 -1.6 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 -2.8 -3.2 -4.3 0.5 45.8 48.0 -5.1 -3.0 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 -1.9 -2.0 -4.2 0.8 49.0 50.1 -4.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 -0.3 -1.5 -4.1 -0.5 41.6 41.6 -2.8 -0.8 0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 99 1 100 -1.9 -1.2 -2.3 1.4 55.3 54.5 -3.1 -2.0 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 94 6 100 -0.8 -0.8 -3.7 1.2 52.3 53.0 -3.3 -1.0 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 -0.6 -4.4 -3.3 -0.7 37.7 39.9 -4.6 -0.8 0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 -3.4 -4.6 -5.9 -0.2 42.5 43.9 -5.2 -3.7 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 -0.7 -3.5 -2.8 -0.3 39.8 42.7 -4.2 -1.0 1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -9.1 -8.6 -8.5 -1.3 35.9 36.4 -8.9 -7.4 -5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.9 1.1 55.6 53.7 -3.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 -1.1 -3.5 -3.0 -0.5 40.1 40.5 -4.6 -1.5 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 -1.0 -2.1 -2.8 -0.1 42.7 43.4 -4.0 -1.4 -0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 -1.6 -2.0 -3.8 0.1 46.2 46.8 -4.2 -1.8 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 -1.5 -1.5 -2.9 0.6 50.7 50.8 -4.2 -1.6 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 -2.2 -2.6 -4.5 0.3 44.4 47.5 -3.6 -2.4 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.5 0.5 50.0 50.1 -5.1 -1.4 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 98 2 100 -2.9 -2.1 -2.9 1.3 54.0 54.3 -5.2 -2.9 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 -3.3 -4.7 -7.0 -0.6 40.7 42.5 -4.9 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 -0.5 -2.5 -2.5 -0.1 43.1 45.6 -4.5 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------