***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 34.6 37.2 42.2 97.5 53.9 48.4 21.0 28.1 42.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 32.6 27.3 36.0 93.1 49.0 45.7 22.8 27.8 33.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 39.7 33.7 42.4 96.5 53.8 48.4 26.6 32.8 50.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 32.0 44.0 46.1 88.2 42.8 41.1 28.8 45.4 56.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 45.4 38.1 49.1 97.0 50.2 47.4 30.5 38.0 51.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 25.8 32.8 45.5 91.8 49.5 45.3 27.0 33.0 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 19.2 23.7 35.2 93.4 49.5 45.1 20.5 23.9 32.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 70.2 60.9 52.5 94.8 48.7 47.1 50.8 62.3 76.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 39.4 35.8 49.8 97.6 52.7 48.6 22.6 34.9 41.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 47.3 47.5 54.9 100.4 54.7 50.9 30.3 44.1 50.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 38.9 34.5 48.3 96.2 52.4 47.7 26.9 33.5 43.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 42.9 37.1 46.6 93.2 48.2 46.0 30.3 37.2 43.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 45.5 42.1 50.8 97.3 52.0 49.1 29.5 41.5 51.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 38.8 52.8 58.1 103.9 59.2 52.8 35.5 48.3 55.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 19.7 23.0 38.7 76.8 37.4 35.4 18.9 36.7 42.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 36.9 32.1 48.2 96.7 51.4 48.2 26.4 31.2 43.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.3 26.6 33.7 89.4 45.7 42.7 20.7 28.0 41.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 42.6 44.6 60.0 105.6 57.3 54.2 28.2 38.9 47.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 38.3 35.5 38.2 94.8 51.0 47.5 25.4 35.3 42.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 31.7 40.2 64.9 94.4 48.4 46.7 33.5 40.2 48.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 39.3 35.0 46.6 97.4 52.9 48.7 22.1 32.3 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 25.4 31.8 36.7 91.7 48.7 44.6 21.6 32.3 43.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 33.3 32.7 42.4 97.1 53.2 49.5 22.4 31.4 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 49.0 49.0 54.3 103.2 56.0 52.4 34.3 43.5 50.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 24.8 39.2 48.8 98.0 53.8 48.0 27.0 35.7 62.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 26.4 32.2 43.9 84.5 40.7 39.8 29.3 34.5 41.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.8 38.5 45.1 99.3 55.2 49.0 21.4 33.4 47.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 22.3 29.5 43.0 86.1 43.2 41.0 27.0 31.7 36.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 70.6 71.9 62.7 103.7 56.7 52.7 50.7 65.3 78.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 35.6 31.0 37.5 94.6 52.5 46.8 19.6 30.3 37.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------