***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.1 8.3 74.3 45.3 38.9 3.5 6.6 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.4 7.2 73.1 45.3 39.7 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.2 8.6 77.2 47.3 39.8 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.4 5.2 9.2 69.3 44.3 35.5 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.5 5.8 9.5 72.2 44.1 36.9 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.6 9.1 71.5 44.6 37.3 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.6 2.9 6.7 69.8 43.0 39.5 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.6 9.1 9.5 67.5 40.8 35.3 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.6 10.4 75.7 42.9 38.3 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.6 4.9 10.4 72.2 41.6 36.8 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.2 9.2 71.9 44.8 36.8 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.3 5.0 8.6 69.4 42.5 35.9 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.6 7.8 9.7 74.3 42.9 37.2 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 2.6 6.2 11.7 81.6 49.4 40.2 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.1 2.4 8.4 64.2 45.2 33.9 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.0 4.9 9.2 72.9 45.4 36.8 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.4 6.7 69.3 45.3 39.4 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.1 11.2 75.0 43.7 38.3 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.4 7.8 76.1 46.2 39.8 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.3 7.3 12.0 67.6 41.4 35.8 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.3 9.7 77.9 45.9 39.5 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.6 7.5 71.5 46.7 39.0 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.6 8.8 78.9 45.9 39.3 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.5 5.9 10.6 78.1 47.0 39.2 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.4 9.4 73.6 45.4 37.6 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.0 8.4 9.0 70.8 41.8 35.6 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.4 4.6 8.6 73.5 45.5 38.7 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.8 8.7 67.1 45.3 35.1 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 5.8 12.3 11.6 74.0 43.8 38.1 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.5 7.5 74.2 45.9 39.7 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------