***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 1.8 4.9 8.6 82.3 52.8 40.6 0.4 4.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.5 7.6 81.2 54.7 41.8 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 1.8 6.9 8.4 79.9 52.5 40.3 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.7 6.6 8.0 61.0 43.1 34.1 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.2 4.0 8.3 67.0 44.2 35.5 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.4 6.0 7.8 67.6 44.3 38.0 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.3 7.6 81.5 55.9 41.8 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 8.6 12.9 8.5 64.2 41.7 34.9 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.6 7.3 9.4 75.8 47.2 38.7 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 4.6 6.2 8.9 68.5 44.0 35.6 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.1 5.2 8.6 69.3 46.3 36.6 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.6 4.4 7.8 64.2 43.0 35.1 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.1 4.6 8.2 64.8 43.5 35.6 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.3 11.0 10.6 79.0 48.4 38.2 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.5 5.3 6.7 53.4 44.6 33.3 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.6 8.6 70.6 47.1 37.4 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.1 7.5 78.2 55.5 41.2 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.1 7.7 10.0 73.4 46.2 37.2 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.6 3.8 7.7 80.0 53.0 40.8 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 4.2 5.6 11.2 65.3 41.6 34.8 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.9 9.2 78.0 49.9 39.8 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.0 7.8 79.3 52.0 41.8 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.5 8.0 77.8 50.3 39.0 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.7 6.7 9.9 77.3 49.4 38.2 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.0 3.8 8.7 71.5 47.5 36.5 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.8 3.2 7.1 55.2 40.4 31.6 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.7 5.1 8.8 79.7 51.5 39.5 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.8 7.1 57.1 42.8 33.0 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 10.0 14.5 10.7 72.9 45.9 37.1 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.5 5.3 7.8 82.1 54.3 41.5 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------