***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 7.2 8.8 17.4 163.5 79.5 73.3 0.5 4.0 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 7.0 8.1 13.6 140.5 75.6 68.4 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 10.4 12.3 17.6 160.8 80.0 74.3 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 11.5 15.9 19.2 156.9 79.2 69.2 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 15.5 18.3 21.1 177.5 82.5 76.2 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 10.0 11.5 17.7 160.2 77.2 69.7 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.0 8.8 13.3 139.8 74.2 68.3 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 18.8 24.0 23.7 171.9 82.0 75.8 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 10.9 13.6 19.4 168.3 80.9 74.3 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 12.6 17.5 24.4 186.9 86.0 79.3 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 10.4 14.0 20.6 170.8 81.4 75.1 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 8.6 11.1 20.3 165.0 79.8 73.8 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 12.0 14.7 22.1 178.7 85.3 76.5 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 13.5 15.5 24.5 171.7 79.6 76.2 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.2 9.1 14.1 125.9 71.7 58.8 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 10.2 13.1 20.3 175.3 81.5 74.8 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 5.1 10.7 11.7 127.5 71.6 65.1 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 15.1 19.7 27.2 198.3 87.8 81.9 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 10.9 14.2 15.0 147.2 77.3 70.5 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 8.6 10.4 28.1 168.7 80.6 75.9 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 10.4 12.9 18.6 165.4 79.7 73.6 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 8.9 10.3 13.3 135.1 74.6 67.5 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 8.9 11.5 17.3 156.2 79.0 72.8 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 13.5 18.0 23.6 183.0 83.7 78.4 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 10.8 17.7 21.4 178.8 82.6 75.8 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 9.0 8.0 17.9 141.9 72.2 67.2 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 12.8 16.8 18.9 172.7 81.2 74.8 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 8.5 12.1 17.5 156.1 77.9 66.5 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 17.1 24.6 27.9 187.7 85.1 80.2 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.5 9.1 14.7 147.1 77.5 70.5 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------