***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9.7 10.9 9.6 3.3 84.8 81.7 5.9 7.6 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 9.1 11.0 9.7 3.3 83.7 81.1 4.6 6.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 9.9 11.0 10.0 3.2 83.1 80.0 5.4 7.4 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 3.3 4.9 7.1 3.6 86.4 82.0 -1.2 1.0 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 9.9 10.9 8.0 2.9 82.8 78.1 5.3 7.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 8.8 9.5 6.2 2.3 76.8 73.7 4.4 6.4 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 8.8 10.2 9.5 3.2 82.6 80.9 4.2 6.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 0.0 0.3 6.6 2.2 77.0 72.8 -2.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 10.1 11.7 8.8 2.9 81.9 77.9 5.5 7.7 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 9.9 10.6 7.4 2.4 78.0 73.4 5.6 7.3 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 9.9 11.1 8.1 2.7 81.1 76.3 5.2 7.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 9.5 10.1 7.4 2.4 78.5 74.4 5.1 7.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 9.6 9.4 7.0 2.2 74.4 71.7 5.3 7.6 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 10.6 11.0 9.1 2.8 77.9 76.2 5.7 8.6 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 9.8 11.1 8.7 4.1 89.2 84.9 5.1 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 10.2 11.2 7.4 2.6 79.4 75.3 5.6 8.1 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 8.7 10.2 9.5 3.3 84.5 81.5 4.0 5.7 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 9.4 10.1 7.1 2.4 77.0 73.1 5.2 6.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 9.7 10.9 9.9 3.3 83.9 80.7 4.8 6.5 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 5.5 5.9 4.9 2.1 75.3 72.3 2.2 2.9 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 10.1 11.4 9.5 3.0 82.1 78.8 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 9.7 11.2 9.7 3.2 84.8 81.2 4.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 9.7 11.2 10.0 3.2 83.6 79.6 5.2 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 10.2 10.8 8.9 2.7 79.3 75.9 5.9 8.1 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 9.0 10.2 8.3 3.2 84.1 80.8 4.4 5.9 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 8.9 9.0 6.3 2.1 73.8 72.3 5.2 6.6 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 9.1 10.3 9.0 3.1 83.0 80.5 5.2 6.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 10.6 11.8 7.7 3.7 86.1 81.8 5.2 7.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 5.7 6.3 6.3 2.2 76.0 72.3 1.3 3.5 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 9.1 10.4 9.7 3.3 83.0 81.2 4.7 6.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------