***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9.6 12.6 10.0 2.3 66.6 65.9 6.0 8.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 8.2 11.1 9.9 2.2 64.4 65.6 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 8.8 12.7 10.4 2.2 64.9 64.8 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 2.7 5.4 7.7 2.7 70.1 67.5 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 9.5 12.5 8.5 2.2 66.3 64.3 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.6 10.5 6.5 1.7 63.1 60.0 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 8.4 10.8 9.9 2.2 65.2 65.5 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.0 1.7 7.2 1.7 63.9 60.4 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 10.1 12.4 9.0 2.1 64.5 62.9 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.5 7.9 1.8 63.5 60.6 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 10.5 12.1 8.3 2.0 64.7 62.3 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.3 11.5 8.0 1.8 64.0 61.1 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.1 11.7 7.1 1.6 62.0 59.8 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 9.5 13.9 9.2 1.9 64.3 61.3 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 11.3 13.8 8.5 3.0 71.9 69.0 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 10.8 12.6 7.7 1.9 65.5 62.1 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 7.6 10.5 9.8 2.1 64.6 65.6 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.9 7.7 1.7 63.3 59.4 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.7 11.5 10.2 2.2 64.1 65.0 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.9 5.3 1.6 62.7 58.5 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 9.7 12.5 9.7 2.2 65.0 64.1 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 8.3 11.2 9.9 2.1 64.3 65.2 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 8.5 12.4 10.3 2.1 64.1 63.6 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 10.6 13.5 9.1 1.9 64.4 61.4 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 8.5 12.6 8.5 2.4 68.9 66.5 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 10.1 11.1 7.0 1.7 62.8 61.6 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 8.5 12.1 9.4 2.3 67.9 65.9 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 12.0 14.5 8.0 2.7 70.4 67.3 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.3 6.9 1.6 61.3 58.3 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 8.3 11.4 10.0 2.3 64.9 65.5 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------