***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 10.8 12.4 10.9 4.4 84.4 80.5 5.2 6.3 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 10.1 11.9 10.9 4.4 84.5 80.7 3.3 5.4 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 10.4 12.9 11.3 4.4 83.2 79.4 4.1 6.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 4.0 6.0 8.9 5.0 86.9 81.8 -1.6 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 11.0 13.0 9.6 4.5 84.0 79.3 4.5 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 9.7 11.8 7.9 4.0 82.0 76.7 3.2 5.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 9.6 11.3 10.8 4.4 84.5 81.0 2.6 4.8 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 1.0 2.0 8.4 4.0 81.8 76.8 -3.3 -1.7 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 11.0 13.2 10.1 4.4 83.1 78.1 4.7 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 10.8 12.7 9.1 4.1 81.5 76.4 4.9 6.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 11.2 13.3 9.4 4.2 83.2 78.1 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 10.9 12.8 9.1 4.0 82.0 77.4 4.5 6.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 11.6 13.0 8.1 3.8 82.4 76.3 5.0 6.6 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 10.6 12.6 10.3 4.3 80.8 76.8 4.1 6.8 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 10.3 11.9 9.8 5.4 88.5 83.8 3.8 5.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 12.0 13.6 8.8 4.1 83.3 77.8 5.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 9.0 10.7 10.8 4.3 84.1 80.5 2.6 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 10.0 11.9 9.0 4.1 81.9 76.0 3.6 6.4 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 9.9 12.5 11.1 4.4 83.5 79.9 3.0 6.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 6.3 8.4 6.6 3.8 83.8 76.1 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 10.9 12.7 10.7 4.4 82.8 78.8 4.8 6.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 9.7 11.6 10.9 4.3 82.8 79.7 2.9 5.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 10.3 12.3 11.3 4.3 81.5 78.5 3.3 5.9 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 10.6 12.2 10.2 4.3 81.3 77.1 4.4 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 9.5 11.5 9.5 4.5 84.2 80.6 4.3 4.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 11.3 12.6 8.1 3.9 84.4 79.0 5.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 10.3 12.5 10.3 4.3 84.5 80.5 4.1 5.6 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 10.7 13.0 9.2 5.1 86.9 81.6 4.2 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 6.8 8.6 8.1 4.0 82.0 75.7 0.4 3.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 9.8 11.9 10.9 4.5 84.4 80.7 3.1 5.1 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------