***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 10.0 12.0 10.7 4.7 86.5 81.9 2.2 3.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 9.3 11.9 11.0 5.0 87.1 83.3 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 10.3 12.7 11.3 4.8 84.9 80.8 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 4.3 5.9 7.9 5.0 85.1 81.2 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 9.3 13.1 9.0 4.3 82.5 78.3 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 9.2 10.8 7.3 3.6 78.9 74.9 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 8.9 11.1 10.8 4.9 87.3 83.3 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 0.6 1.5 7.6 3.5 78.0 74.4 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 9.8 12.9 10.1 4.4 82.9 78.3 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 9.2 10.8 8.6 3.8 78.3 74.6 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 9.7 12.1 9.2 4.0 81.3 76.4 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.2 11.4 8.3 3.6 79.5 75.3 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 9.9 11.1 8.0 3.1 74.6 72.1 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 9.7 11.6 10.7 4.7 81.7 79.3 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 7.7 13.1 9.7 5.4 88.2 82.6 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 10.5 12.2 8.3 3.7 79.5 75.2 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 8.4 10.9 10.8 5.0 87.5 84.2 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 8.9 10.2 8.4 3.8 78.1 75.3 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 9.6 11.7 11.2 5.0 86.6 82.5 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 5.1 6.2 6.1 3.4 78.5 74.9 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 9.6 13.1 10.8 4.5 83.6 79.4 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 9.2 11.4 11.0 5.0 86.9 83.5 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 9.3 11.9 11.3 4.9 85.9 81.3 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 10.1 12.1 10.4 4.4 81.2 78.1 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 9.1 11.7 9.4 4.6 85.4 80.7 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 9.1 10.7 7.1 3.1 77.4 73.6 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 10.2 12.7 10.1 4.5 85.9 81.3 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 8.5 12.1 8.7 5.0 85.3 80.4 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 5.6 6.7 7.6 3.6 77.8 75.0 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 9.1 11.5 10.9 4.9 86.8 82.7 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------