***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 6.0 9.3 6.7 1.8 59.5 59.7 2.5 5.4 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 5.9 6.6 7.0 1.6 55.9 56.2 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 7.4 7.6 7.0 1.4 55.8 55.7 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 1.0 2.7 3.8 1.7 57.6 59.0 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 7.2 7.3 4.9 0.8 51.8 51.9 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 6.5 5.4 3.2 0.1 45.2 46.4 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 96 4 100 5.6 5.7 6.7 1.6 55.3 55.8 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -0.7 -1.4 3.1 -0.3 43.8 44.2 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 7.7 7.9 6.0 0.8 51.6 51.2 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 7.4 6.7 4.0 -0.2 44.3 44.8 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 7.7 7.5 5.3 0.6 51.1 50.7 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 7.2 6.1 4.2 0.3 46.1 47.0 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 7.3 5.2 4.7 0.1 41.8 44.7 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 97 3 100 8.0 7.8 6.3 0.6 47.9 47.9 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 8.9 9.4 6.7 2.7 65.7 65.6 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 7.8 7.4 4.6 0.6 49.4 50.2 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 96 4 100 6.1 6.1 6.7 1.7 55.5 56.3 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 6.2 5.2 3.4 -0.2 42.3 43.4 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 6.3 7.1 7.0 1.6 55.5 55.7 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 3.2 2.2 1.5 -0.5 41.7 42.6 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 7.6 7.7 6.7 1.0 53.6 53.1 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 96 4 100 6.3 6.9 7.0 1.6 55.3 55.8 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 6.8 7.3 7.1 1.5 53.7 54.3 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 96 4 100 8.3 7.4 5.8 0.4 45.5 46.8 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 5.7 6.1 5.6 1.3 56.6 57.1 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.6 4.8 3.1 -0.4 39.8 42.5 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 6.1 6.9 6.1 1.3 56.9 56.8 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 8.5 9.8 5.0 1.9 59.8 59.8 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 95 5 100 3.8 2.6 2.7 -0.3 41.6 43.2 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 5.6 7.2 6.9 1.7 57.5 57.3 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------