***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.7 83.0 79.4 -1.0 -0.7 0.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 -0.5 0.6 1.6 3.0 87.2 83.3 -2.7 -1.5 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 2.2 2.7 1.4 2.7 84.0 81.0 -0.7 0.6 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -3.5 -2.1 -1.0 3.0 86.6 82.2 -7.0 -5.2 -4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 2.4 79.7 76.6 -2.7 -2.1 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 -1.9 -1.6 -3.3 2.0 73.0 71.8 -4.1 -3.1 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 -0.1 0.3 1.5 3.0 86.4 82.1 -2.3 -1.1 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -6.6 -6.7 -3.3 1.8 70.6 69.5 -9.1 -8.0 -6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 2.5 81.6 78.4 -2.2 -0.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 -0.6 -0.4 -2.4 2.1 75.6 73.2 -2.1 -1.3 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 -0.8 -0.6 -1.6 2.3 76.9 74.4 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -2.0 -1.9 -2.4 2.0 72.2 70.7 -3.9 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 -1.1 -1.1 -2.5 1.9 73.2 70.6 -2.8 -1.9 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 0.4 0.9 -0.6 2.6 83.6 78.9 -2.0 -0.8 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 -0.1 1.1 0.4 3.3 91.8 86.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 -0.2 -0.1 -2.1 2.2 75.0 73.2 -2.1 -0.8 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 -0.1 1.2 1.7 3.2 87.8 84.2 -2.7 -1.5 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 -2.9 -2.7 -3.0 2.0 76.9 72.4 -4.3 -3.8 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 -0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 86.8 83.1 -2.5 -1.1 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -5.6 -5.5 -4.7 1.3 67.1 65.3 -8.2 -6.4 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 -0.5 0.1 0.7 2.6 82.6 79.0 -2.3 -1.4 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 -0.5 0.9 1.6 3.1 88.8 84.7 -2.7 -1.7 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 -0.9 -0.4 1.0 2.8 85.1 82.1 -2.4 -1.7 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 2.5 83.0 78.3 -2.4 -1.7 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 2.7 83.8 78.9 -2.7 -1.7 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 -1.1 -0.8 -3.0 1.5 67.6 66.0 -3.2 -2.1 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 -0.1 0.4 0.9 2.6 82.3 78.1 -2.1 -1.2 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 -1.7 -0.8 -0.7 3.1 86.8 82.3 -3.4 -2.3 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -3.0 -2.6 -3.9 1.6 71.8 67.8 -5.6 -4.2 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 85.9 82.3 -2.2 -0.9 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------