***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.7 66.1 63.8 -1.8 0.5 1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 68.2 64.7 -2.5 -0.7 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 3.3 2.7 1.4 1.8 68.3 65.8 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -1.9 -0.6 -1.1 2.1 71.5 67.3 -5.7 -5.1 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 0.1 0.2 -0.9 1.9 66.8 65.0 -3.5 -1.0 0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 -0.3 -0.9 -3.3 1.5 59.1 62.3 -4.1 -1.2 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.8 68.9 65.0 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -6.5 -4.4 -3.1 1.5 60.6 62.2 -9.3 -7.2 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 0.2 1.2 -0.6 1.8 64.3 64.7 -2.8 -0.3 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 0.7 1.1 -2.3 1.6 61.6 62.9 -2.3 -1.3 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -0.5 0.9 -1.7 1.7 62.8 63.8 -2.7 -1.0 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -0.5 -2.3 1.6 62.0 62.8 -3.8 -1.8 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -0.1 -2.9 1.3 58.1 60.2 -3.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 1.6 0.8 -0.7 1.7 65.1 64.3 -1.7 -0.2 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.2 73.7 68.7 -2.4 -0.5 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 0.3 1.3 -2.3 1.6 61.2 62.5 -2.2 -0.3 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.8 68.6 65.3 -2.1 -0.7 1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.5 -3.0 1.4 61.2 61.9 -4.0 -2.4 -1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.7 67.3 64.7 -2.4 -0.6 1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -5.0 -3.9 -4.9 0.8 55.3 57.1 -8.9 -6.2 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.8 66.6 64.8 -2.4 -0.5 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.8 67.8 65.8 -2.6 -0.8 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 -0.3 0.2 1.0 1.6 65.6 64.8 -2.4 -0.6 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 0.7 0.9 -0.9 1.8 66.0 65.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.9 67.3 64.7 -2.4 -1.4 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -0.1 0.1 -3.0 1.3 58.5 60.3 -2.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.7 65.7 63.7 -2.4 -0.8 1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -0.8 0.0 -1.0 2.1 70.4 67.4 -4.5 -2.7 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -2.1 -3.6 1.2 58.3 60.0 -5.8 -3.6 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.8 68.4 65.1 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------