***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 0.1 1.5 1.1 2.7 74.5 70.8 -3.9 -2.9 -0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 -0.3 1.3 1.6 3.5 80.8 76.2 -4.5 -3.2 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 1.7 2.3 1.2 2.8 74.8 71.6 -2.9 -1.4 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 -2.9 -1.4 -1.2 3.1 76.5 74.1 -9.3 -6.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -0.8 -0.9 2.5 69.5 68.2 -4.1 -2.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -2.8 -2.5 -3.8 1.7 60.9 61.7 -5.4 -3.1 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 -0.1 1.6 1.5 3.4 79.6 75.1 -3.9 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -7.9 -7.6 -3.8 1.6 59.3 59.9 -10.1 -8.4 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 -0.9 0.2 -1.1 2.3 68.4 66.6 -4.8 -2.9 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 -2.0 -0.4 -2.9 1.9 63.2 62.4 -4.2 -2.6 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -0.7 -2.1 2.0 63.5 63.0 -4.1 -2.8 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -3.4 -2.3 -2.8 1.8 60.5 61.5 -5.5 -3.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -1.3 -3.1 1.5 59.2 59.4 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 -0.1 0.7 -0.9 2.6 70.5 68.5 -3.6 -2.3 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 3.0 75.9 72.8 -3.6 -2.0 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -1.7 -0.4 -2.5 1.9 61.7 62.7 -3.5 -2.2 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 -0.2 1.6 2.0 3.9 84.2 78.3 -4.2 -2.4 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -4.0 -3.1 -3.2 1.9 62.8 63.0 -5.4 -4.5 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 -0.3 1.1 1.4 3.3 79.3 75.3 -4.6 -3.5 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -7.0 -7.1 -4.8 1.2 57.3 57.4 -9.4 -7.6 -6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 -1.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 71.9 68.9 -4.5 -2.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 -0.7 0.3 1.8 3.7 81.8 77.4 -4.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 -1.0 -0.2 0.8 2.9 76.4 73.1 -4.6 -3.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 -1.3 0.0 -1.1 2.4 68.5 67.5 -4.7 -3.4 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 -0.8 0.1 0.3 2.8 73.2 71.0 -4.0 -3.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 -2.0 -1.8 -3.4 1.3 55.4 58.0 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 0.2 0.7 0.8 2.7 73.5 70.2 -4.3 -2.6 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.5 -0.7 -1.0 3.0 73.9 71.9 -5.4 -3.5 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -5.0 -5.2 -4.4 1.2 56.7 58.1 -7.1 -5.8 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 0.0 1.0 1.4 3.1 77.8 74.5 -4.5 -3.1 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------