***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 1.5 1.8 1.0 3.2 69.7 70.6 -4.6 -0.8 1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 0.5 1.0 1.3 3.6 75.0 74.3 -5.4 -1.1 0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 3.0 3.1 1.1 3.2 70.7 71.1 -1.9 0.2 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 -3.0 -3.4 -1.6 2.9 66.3 67.6 -7.6 -4.6 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 -2.1 -1.6 -1.4 2.2 61.0 61.2 -4.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 -3.5 -3.4 -4.0 1.5 55.6 57.2 -5.0 -3.7 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 0.6 0.6 1.1 3.5 71.4 71.6 -4.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 -7.7 -6.6 -4.0 1.7 57.3 56.2 -9.5 -7.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 0.5 0.5 -0.8 2.8 67.7 68.1 -4.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 -1.5 -0.2 -2.9 2.2 62.7 62.0 -4.7 -1.7 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 -2.2 -0.9 -1.7 2.5 62.1 62.9 -4.8 -2.5 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 -3.3 -2.8 -2.8 1.9 56.2 57.3 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 -2.4 -2.2 -2.4 2.1 57.5 60.2 -4.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 1.0 1.2 -0.7 3.1 71.6 71.3 -3.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 0.1 1.5 1.0 4.2 84.4 82.3 -3.5 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 -1.1 -1.0 -2.2 2.3 59.4 61.7 -4.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 0.5 0.4 1.3 3.6 71.7 72.6 -5.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 -3.6 -3.1 -3.3 2.2 59.8 61.4 -6.1 -3.8 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 0.8 1.1 1.2 3.6 76.9 75.5 -4.8 -0.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 -7.3 -7.4 -5.2 1.2 52.8 53.4 -9.9 -7.5 -6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 0.2 0.4 0.5 3.0 69.0 69.3 -4.5 -1.4 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 0.9 1.1 1.5 3.6 76.0 76.0 -5.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 0.1 0.6 0.8 3.5 78.7 76.2 -4.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 -0.8 -0.2 -0.9 2.9 67.3 68.3 -4.6 -2.3 -0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 2.7 67.5 66.7 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 -2.5 -3.2 -3.8 0.6 44.1 48.0 -4.0 -2.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 0.2 -0.1 0.5 2.8 67.9 67.4 -5.1 -1.8 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 -1.2 -0.8 -0.7 3.4 72.8 72.6 -5.8 -2.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 -3.7 -3.8 -4.9 1.5 54.5 55.5 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 1.2 1.5 1.2 3.5 73.3 73.0 -5.1 -0.6 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------