***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.8 48.0 17.2 20.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 17.9 19.4 21.2 56.9 21.8 25.6 22.8 27.8 33.9 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 21.2 19.4 20.6 49.5 17.7 21.1 26.6 32.8 50.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 25.9 23.9 21.4 46.7 19.1 20.5 28.8 45.4 56.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 26.0 26.2 24.5 53.6 22.0 23.1 30.5 38.0 51.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 22.1 21.6 25.9 53.9 18.2 21.5 27.0 33.0 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 16.9 16.5 21.0 57.9 21.9 26.2 20.5 23.9 32.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 43.7 39.6 25.7 51.3 16.2 20.0 50.8 62.3 76.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 21.3 18.3 23.5 50.3 16.5 20.2 22.6 34.9 41.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 29.2 25.7 25.8 51.5 15.4 20.0 30.3 44.1 50.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 22.2 20.0 22.3 50.6 18.1 20.9 26.9 33.5 43.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 25.8 23.2 21.8 49.0 16.1 19.5 30.3 37.2 43.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 24.0 21.6 23.6 51.0 16.8 19.5 29.5 41.5 51.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 34.7 30.9 28.0 55.8 20.2 23.0 35.5 48.3 55.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 19.7 16.5 24.4 54.7 29.8 28.0 18.9 36.7 42.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 19.6 18.8 22.4 51.0 19.1 21.0 26.4 31.2 43.3 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 20.3 20.4 22.1 62.9 26.0 29.1 20.7 28.0 41.0 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 26.6 22.4 29.3 53.3 14.0 20.3 28.2 38.9 47.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 21.6 20.5 21.3 55.1 20.0 24.6 25.4 35.3 42.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 27.8 25.2 34.8 53.6 16.3 20.9 33.5 40.2 48.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 21.0 17.8 21.4 48.5 16.0 20.6 22.1 32.3 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 23.0 20.5 23.7 63.5 25.0 29.5 21.6 32.3 43.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 20.5 17.4 22.2 53.2 18.7 23.3 22.4 31.4 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 28.1 24.1 26.1 53.0 17.1 21.3 34.3 43.5 50.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 19.3 18.2 24.6 52.4 22.4 23.0 27.0 35.7 62.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 23.6 21.4 23.3 49.8 15.8 19.5 29.3 34.5 41.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 17.6 14.1 22.8 51.5 19.2 22.0 21.4 33.4 47.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 19.3 18.5 22.9 51.6 24.8 24.2 27.0 31.7 36.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 42.9 37.3 31.6 53.6 14.6 20.2 50.7 65.3 78.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 18.3 15.5 20.5 53.5 20.1 23.8 19.6 30.3 37.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------