***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.4 69.0 50.4 40.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.8 6.7 80.1 54.3 43.5 3.0 5.0 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.1 6.4 68.5 47.1 40.3 3.8 5.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.8 8.3 7.1 67.1 51.4 36.8 2.8 7.4 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.4 5.4 7.3 68.7 48.4 38.8 4.3 6.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.5 8.9 73.4 51.0 40.1 3.7 6.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.9 8.1 6.9 85.2 57.0 43.7 2.1 5.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.6 9.8 8.1 66.2 44.6 37.4 7.9 11.4 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.9 7.4 67.8 47.6 39.5 3.3 6.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.9 7.2 8.2 68.1 46.1 38.4 4.7 7.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.1 5.3 7.2 68.5 47.7 36.9 2.8 5.5 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 2.9 5.8 6.8 64.1 46.3 36.5 4.4 7.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.7 7.1 7.6 68.1 49.2 38.1 3.9 7.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.0 10.2 8.6 79.1 51.8 43.3 5.2 10.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.6 13.7 7.5 73.8 58.7 41.5 0.2 5.9 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.9 6.1 7.2 68.3 46.9 37.1 4.1 6.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.1 6.8 88.3 58.0 44.6 5.3 7.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.6 9.0 69.5 46.7 39.3 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.1 5.5 6.7 77.1 52.3 43.2 3.1 5.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.9 7.8 10.3 66.8 45.5 39.3 4.6 8.6 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.3 6.6 66.8 47.5 39.7 3.4 5.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.0 7.0 86.8 55.2 44.5 4.0 9.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.3 7.1 76.0 50.6 43.2 2.9 5.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.3 6.6 8.0 72.3 47.5 40.3 5.4 7.6 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.7 7.8 71.0 50.2 40.9 1.8 4.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.0 7.7 68.8 51.4 39.7 3.1 7.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.5 7.6 74.2 50.3 41.6 1.7 5.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.8 7.2 70.0 54.0 38.4 1.9 6.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 9.3 9.6 69.1 45.7 39.7 6.3 11.8 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.7 6.6 75.8 53.4 42.6 4.1 6.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------