***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.6 51.6 38.9 30.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.3 2.2 5.5 52.3 38.2 31.4 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.8 2.8 5.7 52.9 38.4 31.2 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 3.1 4.3 5.7 47.8 36.0 26.0 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.7 4.7 6.7 57.8 39.0 31.5 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.4 8.1 60.7 39.2 33.9 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.6 2.5 5.6 54.5 39.0 32.1 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.5 9.1 8.3 62.2 40.8 32.6 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 1.7 2.6 7.0 59.7 38.1 31.5 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.4 4.8 8.2 62.6 39.5 32.7 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.1 3.8 6.8 59.4 39.9 32.1 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.3 4.6 6.9 59.2 40.6 31.6 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.6 6.4 7.4 59.7 38.7 33.1 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.9 5.6 7.7 58.5 37.4 33.2 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 0.9 1.6 6.3 50.9 39.6 29.7 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.7 4.1 6.7 55.8 39.9 31.3 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.5 2.5 5.7 58.2 41.9 33.1 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 2.6 3.7 8.9 61.0 37.5 32.3 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.5 2.4 5.4 51.0 37.7 31.1 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 3.9 7.0 10.7 58.7 36.9 32.7 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 1.7 2.1 6.1 54.9 35.7 30.9 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.5 1.7 6.1 58.5 39.7 32.8 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.1 2.8 5.7 51.7 39.3 31.6 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.5 5.3 7.5 59.1 37.7 32.5 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.4 3.2 6.7 55.4 37.4 31.3 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.8 6.3 7.0 56.2 38.3 31.5 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.3 3.8 6.4 55.1 37.8 31.8 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.0 1.9 6.0 49.4 38.8 28.0 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 5.0 9.6 9.6 60.2 37.0 32.3 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.9 5.5 51.9 39.0 31.3 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------