***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 59.2 45.8 36.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.5 6.9 71.9 54.5 42.0 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.2 6.6 61.3 47.2 36.9 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 3.8 4.9 3.8 34.0 31.4 20.6 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.2 3.5 6.2 55.4 41.6 34.2 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.1 4.9 6.2 51.5 40.3 32.0 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.9 6.5 70.6 51.7 41.8 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.7 11.6 6.4 53.8 37.7 32.1 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 3.2 3.1 6.7 57.2 40.4 34.1 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 4.6 5.6 6.9 56.4 38.2 33.1 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.8 3.4 5.6 53.4 38.6 33.5 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.6 3.5 5.3 50.6 37.5 31.4 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.2 4.5 5.8 52.1 40.5 32.8 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.3 10.8 8.8 66.7 45.4 37.8 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 2.7 5.2 46.0 40.8 33.2 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.0 2.7 5.5 53.0 40.2 33.7 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.6 7.1 77.9 59.4 44.7 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.4 7.0 8.3 61.6 41.6 34.8 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.7 3.9 7.1 70.6 53.4 40.7 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.7 5.5 9.2 60.9 41.4 35.1 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.4 3.1 6.6 59.1 44.6 35.5 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.3 7.8 80.6 61.3 44.7 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.2 7.3 66.4 48.9 38.0 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.2 7.9 62.6 43.2 36.2 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.3 6.9 62.1 48.8 37.5 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.6 2.8 5.3 47.2 37.2 29.0 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.7 3.2 6.6 62.7 47.1 37.4 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.0 1.9 4.5 40.1 35.4 26.8 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 10.2 14.1 8.9 62.5 42.5 35.7 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.4 6.5 66.4 49.4 39.3 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------