***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.8 16.1 11.3 11.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 0.6 0.0 2.1 23.7 18.7 15.8 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 0.7 0.1 1.9 18.0 15.5 13.1 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.2 4.1 4.7 39.6 29.8 28.7 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.4 4.3 34.7 25.8 24.8 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 1.6 0.9 2.7 26.0 21.7 18.0 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.1 2.0 22.9 15.1 15.2 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 3.0 1.9 2.9 23.1 16.7 14.9 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.1 2.5 19.8 13.8 12.7 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 0.8 0.0 2.6 19.9 11.5 12.3 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 1.2 0.3 2.7 23.0 16.0 16.0 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 0.9 0.0 2.7 23.3 17.6 15.2 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 1.9 0.2 2.8 23.9 14.3 14.6 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 1.3 0.2 2.8 22.0 16.9 14.5 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.5 3.3 5.5 50.9 46.9 40.5 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 1.4 1.0 3.1 27.7 21.8 18.9 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 0.9 1.0 2.4 28.9 21.7 18.3 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 0.8 0.0 3.1 22.1 11.0 13.3 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 0.9 0.0 2.1 22.4 18.6 15.4 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 1.4 1.0 4.6 28.2 19.3 17.2 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.1 2.1 17.5 14.4 12.4 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 1.1 0.8 2.7 30.1 24.7 19.1 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 0.7 0.0 2.1 20.6 16.3 13.9 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 1.9 0.6 2.7 20.8 14.3 13.9 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 1.1 0.4 3.2 25.4 19.8 18.3 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 1.2 0.4 3.2 27.1 19.5 18.8 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 0.9 0.0 2.2 18.3 12.4 12.7 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.7 1.9 5.2 48.9 41.3 37.0 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 2.3 0.6 3.5 23.5 13.6 14.2 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.0 1.9 20.3 16.2 14.3 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------