***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 7.8 2.0 68.2 69.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 8.6 9.1 8.0 2.3 72.1 71.2 4.6 6.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 9.2 9.4 8.3 2.2 68.4 69.9 5.4 7.4 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.0 4.0 0.2 48.7 51.0 -1.2 1.0 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.7 5.9 1.5 64.8 63.4 5.3 7.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 8.8 9.2 5.3 2.0 75.0 70.5 4.4 6.4 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 8.3 9.1 8.0 2.3 75.7 72.4 4.2 6.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 0.0 0.6 6.4 2.6 78.6 76.0 -2.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.1 7.2 2.0 67.6 68.1 5.5 7.7 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 9.7 10.2 7.0 2.5 75.4 73.9 5.6 7.3 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 9.5 9.4 6.3 1.8 68.3 67.7 5.2 7.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 9.4 9.7 6.6 2.3 75.2 73.0 5.1 7.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 9.7 10.5 6.4 2.4 79.4 74.9 5.3 7.6 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 10.5 12.1 8.9 3.2 83.2 79.0 5.7 8.6 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 5.4 3.4 -0.8 38.1 41.4 5.1 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.0 9.8 5.9 1.8 70.0 67.7 5.6 8.1 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.9 8.5 7.6 2.1 69.3 69.2 4.0 5.7 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 9.5 11.0 7.4 3.2 83.8 80.9 5.2 6.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 9.1 9.7 8.4 2.4 73.8 72.3 4.8 6.5 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 5.8 7.4 5.7 3.4 90.0 84.6 2.2 2.9 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.9 9.1 7.5 1.8 66.2 66.3 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.6 8.0 2.2 70.4 69.9 4.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 9.3 10.3 8.8 2.7 77.7 74.9 5.2 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 10.0 10.8 8.4 2.9 79.1 77.3 5.9 8.1 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 6.6 8.0 5.9 1.5 65.0 64.2 4.4 5.9 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 9.1 9.7 6.2 2.5 79.7 77.1 5.2 6.6 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 8.6 9.0 7.3 2.1 72.6 71.1 5.2 6.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.3 4.0 -0.1 46.6 48.0 5.2 7.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 6.0 7.7 7.0 3.6 89.5 84.6 1.3 3.5 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 8.6 8.8 8.1 2.3 72.6 71.4 4.7 6.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------