***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 10.7 3.4 84.3 77.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 12.1 13.8 10.8 3.4 84.4 77.5 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 13.6 15.9 11.0 3.5 83.0 76.5 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 7.0 9.2 8.3 3.1 79.4 72.8 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 13.3 14.9 9.2 3.4 80.9 74.9 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 12.0 13.5 7.8 3.4 79.1 74.9 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 12.0 13.6 10.6 3.3 85.5 77.7 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 2.6 3.2 8.4 3.5 80.3 76.1 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 14.2 15.8 10.0 3.6 81.5 75.5 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 14.3 15.6 9.2 3.5 80.5 75.8 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 14.3 15.7 9.1 3.5 81.1 75.6 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 13.0 14.2 9.0 3.4 80.5 75.9 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 13.4 14.6 8.4 3.3 79.9 75.8 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 14.0 15.8 10.3 3.4 79.6 74.1 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 11.8 13.9 8.0 2.6 74.7 69.8 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 14.1 15.6 8.7 3.4 81.1 75.2 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 11.2 12.5 10.5 3.3 83.0 77.0 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 14.3 15.5 8.8 3.5 80.4 75.1 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 12.4 14.5 11.0 3.5 83.5 77.1 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 8.3 9.5 6.6 3.3 81.0 75.4 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 13.9 15.5 10.5 3.5 81.9 76.1 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 12.4 14.0 10.7 3.3 81.6 76.3 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 13.1 15.0 11.1 3.5 81.6 76.0 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 13.9 15.5 10.2 3.5 80.9 74.9 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 12.9 14.7 9.0 3.3 82.5 76.3 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 12.0 13.1 8.1 3.1 80.0 75.7 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 12.9 15.4 9.9 3.3 84.6 77.3 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 13.2 15.3 8.4 3.0 77.1 71.5 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 9.1 10.2 7.9 3.4 80.7 74.7 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 12.5 14.0 10.9 3.5 84.9 77.6 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------